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http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/tristar-doji-on-sp500-august-27/
I’ve been mentioning over the week that the S&P 500 (and other US Stock Market Indexes) were forming dojis at their upper Bollinger Band lines on the daily charts.
As of Wednesday, we formed the dreaded “Tri-Star Doji” pattern which was last seen at the July 2009 lows prior to the 150 point rally in the S&P 500 into August.
Let’s take a quick mid-day Thursday look at this development to see if the bearish signal will hold.
See my prior two post on this pattern for more information:
“Dojis at the Highs - a Look at DIA, QQQQ, and SPY”
This is a quick mid-day post, so let’s be sure to take a look at how the market closes today for confirmation, but for now, this is a bearish non-confirmation of higher prices as we challenge the upper Bollinger Band on three doji patterns, as well as a negative volume and momentum divergence.
At ThePatternSite.com, Thomas Bulkowski describes the Tri-Star Doji (page link) by saying “The bearish tri-star candlestick is an unusual [pattern]… [which] has a frequency rank of 77 out of 103 candle patterns, so it will be hard to find. And when you do find it, do not look for outstanding performance, either.”
In his testing, Bulkowski found that the “Bearish Tri-Star” produced a downward move 52% of the time… which just above ‘random chance.’
Still no guarantee of a reversal, but odds seem overwhelming to favor a downside move to challenge the 1,000 level at a minimum to see if that can hold as support.
Stay tuned!
Corey Rosenbloom, CMT |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2009-8-27 07:45 PM
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发表于 2009-8-27 07:50 PM
