It is time to buy FNM/FRE put

zhyuan04

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fa ... 7.html?x=0&.v=1
FNM/FRE's stock should be worth zero because They both owe the government about $50 billion each and have no capital of their own. I think it is a good bet to buy their mid-term $1 put now at around 0.10-0.20. It have potential to be doubled or tripled very soon.

dara

Does not worth it. If you believe FNM/FRE would drop to 0.7or low, then why do not buy AIG PUT, it has more potential.

AIG worth zero too.

CoolMax

呵呵，债可以变股。没有资本又怎样？

dara

呵呵，债可以变股。没有资本又怎样？
CoolMax 发表于 2009-8-24 15:31

Well, if you are talking about other banks, it is possible.
But for FNM/FRE/AIG, it has zero value.

AIG: owns government 153B, and government controls 80% of the current company.
Nobody in the world would ever think AIG could pay back 153B, even sell the whole company.

convert 153B to common stock? I could not think the dilution, it is already 80% owned by uncle sam.

zhishun

别吓我啊。。。
俺今天又加了fre.

CoolMax

Well, if you are talking about other banks, it is possible.
But for FNM/FRE/AIG, it has zero value.

AIG: owns government 153B, and government controls 80% of the current company.
Nobody in th ...
dara 发表于 2009-8-24 03:40 PM

不会完蛋的。这波大熊市，真正完了的只有LEH。

dara

不会完蛋的。这波大熊市，真正完了的只有LEH。
CoolMax 发表于 2009-8-24 15:54

LEH/BSC/WM/ are all done, if you are talking about stocks, AIG/FRE/FNM/WA and many more are pretty much wiped out too.

I am not so sure. Currently I wouldsay it is not over because WS need those 3 dudes to pay cash to other finance companies.

Long term never say never.

Another trick is that you  better not use TA to analysis finance stock movement. I've seen enough examples in 2008/2009.

CoolMax

LEH/BSC/WM/ are all done, if you are talking about stocks, AIG/FRE/FNM/WA and many more are pretty much wiped out too.

I am not so sure. Currently I wouldsay it is not over because WS need tho ...
dara 发表于 2009-8-24 04:00 PM

BK和被兼并，并不是一会事。我还有WM的卡，照样可以用。

2F手上握有美国一半以上的房贷。
Too Big to Fail!

dara

BK和被兼并，并不是一会事。我还有WM的卡，照样可以用。

2F手上握有美国一半以上的房贷。
Too Big to Fail!
CoolMax 发表于 2009-8-24 16:03

I am revisiting the chart again. BAC up from 18.5(July 15) to 38(Oct.1), then dropped back to 19 in Oct.9 days. wiped 2 months gain in 3 trading days.

zhyuan04

Too big to fail does not mean the common stock can not be wiped out.

BK和被兼并，并不是一会事。我还有WM的卡，照样可以用。

2F手上握有美国一半以上的房贷。
Too Big to Fail!
CoolMax 发表于 2009-8-24 16:03

CoolMax

Too big to fail does not mean the common stock can not be wiped out.


zhyuan04 发表于 2009-8-24 04:14 PM

Hope you have a bigger money printer that FED does.