粗说AVNR做老蛇的生日礼物（响应股帝）

ajs

谢谢，分析得很好~

baysky

Some more comments from Kutz regarding the death case in trial.
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Too many people do not understand the clinical study process in the first place, but when you read, say the AVNR board "everybodys an expert". I have been involved in these studies for 30 years.

In a regulated FDA clinical research study deaths are the ultimate in serious adverse events (SAEs). But: they happen!

The evaluation of that death is not for the Sponsor company (AVNR) to evaluate in terms of linkage in the first place. This was the responsibility of the principal investigator (PI-doctor)in charge of the patient.

The doctor assesses causality of the event and their is a ranking system he/she uses with choices from "Unrelated to definately related". The protocol guides them on this, not AVNR. The SAE you refer to was assessed possibly related. Thats in the middle of the ranking system.

The Sponsor can collect all of the event facts and supporting medical facts about the patient and try to make heads or tails of the causality rating. The event was also reported to the doctors Institutional Review Board and they have their say in it.

It would be nice if we did know the doctors reasons why he/she said possibly instead of unlikely. Must be some reason they ranked it that way. But it does not mean this drug won't be approved at all.

People die in clinical studies all the time. They take the study drug and then get hit by a car, thats still an SAE to be reported even though the cause goes without serious debate-LOL!.

I would like to know the particulars of this case as well and its a good question to ask of management at a teleconference when they have one. The other deaths are all expected to me and easily explainable and thats important. We must remember that these are sickly patients.

You wish you had no deaths in a trial, but it happens and does not mean the drug is dead. Not at all! This ones alive and well in the world of drug development.

Sometimes the data is not perfect for approval and is still good for approval!

Hope this helps!

Kutz

trueself

1# colderdown


thanks! good one!

我有些avnr，不过仓位很小。
小赌怡情

谷米

俺今天一早已经把这东东割了，这个操作要反思一下

cartier

An article talks about AVNR month ago worth to read?

Jul 15, 2009 11:13 am | about stocks: AVNR
Font Size: PrintEmail TweetThis If you’re looking for some biotech penny stock action today, you’ll want to check out AVANIR Pharmaceuticals (AVNR). The rumor is - and it’s strictly a rumor - that Teva is mulling an acquisition. AVANIR shares are up firmly, though not yet wildly, on the buzz.

A Teva acquisition of AVANIR actually makes a little sense. Teva has been looking for a foothold into the arena. And. Zenvia is targetng unpredictable emotional episodes of pseudobulbar affect (or PBA), which is also known as involuntary emotional expression disorder (IEED). However, Zenvia can also treat diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain.

The assumption was that Endo Pharmaceuticals would get the honor. But, AVANIR’s Zenvia could fit the bill too.

If Teva can actually buy AVNR at $2.00 per share, most owners would be - and should be - greatly disappointed. Some analysts suggest the price should be closer to something between $6.00 and $8.00, especially considering the chances of Zenvia’s approval are high.

At a 5% market penetration, Zenvia could produce annual revenue in the neighborhood of $200 million. That’s largely where the $6.00 to $8.00 per-share valuation is coming from.

As for the stock itself, I like this chart as much as I like the story/rumor. I see a clear break in a falling resistance line. You could also make a good argument that the last couple of weeks formed a technical wedge, and today’s modest move here is a breakout of that triangle shape.

You can also see that last week’s bottom and the resumption of the uptrend was fueled by a much longer-term support line being met.

Bottom line - this is just a good looking technical chart, especially for a true penny stock. The accompanying story ain’t too shabby either.

The one thing that’s missing with today’s move from this penny stock is volume. You’d think with these kinds of rumors floating around - unconfirmed though they may be - that the market would be all over this potential three to four bagger. Maybe the market collectively sees a problem…let me know below if that’s what’s holding shares back.

Do you want to know when or if we officially pick SVNR as a Small Cap Network trade? Sign up for the free newsletter today at www.smallcapnetwork.com

Stocks: AVNR