对冲基金押注美国天然气价格将上涨两倍

卜丁

一只对冲基金掷下大赌注，打赌今冬天然气价格将上涨两倍，在该大宗商品价格跌至7年低位之际，此举令人瞩目。

交易员上周注意到，一家身份不明的基金投入数百万美元，购得在明年1-2月以10美元/mBtu价格购买美国天然气的权利，而目前天然气现货价位仅略高于3美元/mBtu。

“这是相当长一段时间以来，我看到的第一个看涨操作，”Paramount Options总裁雷蒙德•卡波尼(Raymond Carbone)在纽约商品交易所(New York Mercantile Exchange)交易厅表示。“这引起了（期权）圈内人们的注意。”

这一押注类似于2007年末买入石油看涨期权的操作——如果油价在2008年中期涨至每桶150美元，就可兑现期权。期权合约的持有者有权在特定日期、以特定价格买进标的物。

由于成本较低，且具有较高的潜在回报，这些期权曾被称作“彩票”，但在油价飙升后，此举带来了回报。

昨日美国天然气期货跌至3.049美元/mBtu，创7年新低，原因是市场仍处于供过于求状态。不过，一些人表示，由于需求疲软，过去一年来有些钻井停工，一旦此举开始导致供应紧缺，天然气价格就有可能回升。

Bernstein Research分析师本•戴尔(Ben Dell)表示，鉴于今年美国天然气产量下降了30%，降幅为历来之最，供应过剩将转变为供应不足，价格将随之上涨。但没有人预料天然气价格会在近期内重上10美元/mBtu。

buctusa

UNG's price trend is so weird recently ................

bull007

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/ ... nance&ch=633473

it might be the reason it drops a lot today.

Jennyahwu

inventory is too low

polopolo

Either this fund is insane or they are doing something we don't understand.

For Nat Gas to reach 10 dollars, you need weather to help you out. Just betting on production cut is not nearly to be enough. There are capacity out there that waiting to be bring online.

And weather prediction, aghh, we all know how that is a piece of cake for speculators.

Unless it is a hedge, but I don't know what kind of deal needs $10 hedging

jc200900

Either this fund is insane or they are doing something we don't understand.
polopolo 发表于 2009-8-20 19:11

Fund搞个news想拉高出货而已，我赌它的nature gas寸头绝对比区区几百万美金要大得多。

polopolo

6# jc200900

I don't know how likely this is. There are so many commercial players (every single one of them hedging a lot) that 2 million dollar call option will not scare anyone.

trend

what else can we buy other than UNG or NG(future)?

3334440716

股舞人生