zt megaphones...

SAR

anyone can me tell how to insert pictures? the pictures got lost when i paste here

The following is from "Technical Analysis Of Stock Trends, 9th Edition, Robert D. Edwards, John Magee, W.H.C. Bassetti"




Posted by Atilla Demiray at 8/14/2009 09:06:00 PM 0 Comments  
Note on ES trades
As you know, I have been following a trading system for my futures trading.

The system generates buy and sell signals together with position size information and maintains dynamic stops for each trade. For my trading, I only take strong trade signals to enter/exit at once or twice.

The system always trades during the regular hours (9:30-4:00). All entry and exits and all stops are valid for regular hours.

Anyway, I give these trades realtime to keep the blog spirit high. And it is not a big deal to do it. However the system is dynamically updating the stops all the time. This will require me to post maybe 10s of updates on stops.

Today after market sold off hard, based on the market parameters, the system first lowered stops. I added the new stop levels to my original post. Later in the day, before the market rallied in the last few mins, the stops were raised again. I didn't get a chance to update the stops on the blog in the middle of chaos.

So my positions are not stopped but you rightfully think they are. From now on, I will only give the initial stops (It was 1014 for this trade). If my dynamic stops are hit, I will give them as my exits. This will simplify the things little bit.

The system is still fully short and I think we will make new swing lows on Monday.
Posted by Sol at 8/14/2009 07:35:00 PM 3 Comments  
Potential Megaphone Top
I noticed this megaphone pattern on ES hourly. Something that may be in play. But it is a small time frame pattern.

Regardless this plays out or not, intermediate and long term situation is not so bright. SPX will make new secular bear market lows in a year or so and unfortunately there will be no way out of this one except turning USD into a Zimbabwe dollar.

I will post an update on long and intermediate term situation this weekend. If we get more weakness early next week, it will confirm my earlier call on US Financial Markets being in Intermediate Term Down Trend.


Posted by Atilla Demiray at 8/14/2009 03:15:00 PM 37 Comments  
Shifting stops btw 1004.25-1007.75
I am planning to cover some near 980 despite the system may not do it. I don't think we can get there today. If we do, that will make this move an initiation sell off therefore I will not cover a share until 930-940
So if we test 980 early next week, I may cover some.

Edit:
I dont want to post another "shifting stops ..... ", so I will update the stop in this post as the system dynamically adjusts. I shifted the stops to 1001.5 - 1003.25 range.
Edited at 12:00 PM ET