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发表于 2009-8-11 11:30 PM
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story ... yst-says-2009-08-11
Trading volume slumps to lowest yet this year on the NYSE
By Kate Gibson, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A sharp drop in U.S. stock market trading volume could signal a looming test of the year's lows or merely illustrate investor inactivity in a summer month, just ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcement Wednesday.
The diminished trade had overall volume on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday falling to just under 1.1 billion, down 25% from its three-week moving average.
"The overall volume yesterday was the lowest for the year. I would attribute it to it being a Monday and August after earnings season, which tends to lend itself to lackluster volume in the first place, so I would be less inclined to use yesterday's volume as a tea leaf one way or the other," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist, Jefferies & Co.
FOMC unlikely to extend payroll euphoria
Concern about slowing third-quarter growth as well as falling inflation fears suggest the Fed is unlikely to extend the bullish attitude that started with recent payroll data.
Other probable factors behind the current pullback include ongoing Treasury auctions and "what may or may not be a pivotal post-Fed meeting communiqué -- they are not going to make a decision on rates, but they may change the language," said Hogan. Read the Fed.
On Tuesday, the major U.S. equity indexes fell for a second straight session, with financial shares pacing the losses.
After falling more than 120 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed (INDU 9,242, -96.35, -1.03%) finished at 9,241.45, down 96.5 points, or 1%. The S&P 500 /quotes/comstock/21z!i1:in\x (SPX 994.35, -12.75, -1.27%) shed 12.75 points, or 1.3%, to 994.35, while the Nasdaq /quotes/comstock/10y!i:comp (COMP 1,970, -22.51, -1.13%) dropped 22.51 points, or 1.1%, to stand at 1,969.73.
Time out?
But one market technician believes trading volume in recent days on the S&P 500 Index is a sign that the broad market gauge will test last month's lows, then likely fall under its March low either next month or in October.
/quotes/comstock/21z!i1:in\x SPX 994.35, -12.75, -1.27%
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The decline in volume started on Friday and suggests the S&P 500 /quotes/comstock/21z!i1:in\x (SPX 994.35, -12.75, -1.27%) will make a new low beneath its July 8 bottom of 869.32, probably next week -- on the way to a test during September or October of its March 6 intraday low of 666.79, said Tony Cherniawski, chief investment officer at the Practical Investor LLC, a financial advisory firm.
"In a normal breakout you get rising volume. In this case, we had rising volume for a while; then it really dropped off last week," said Cherniawski, who ascribes the recent rise in equities to "a huge short-covering rally."
The S&P has rallied more than 50% from its March lows, briefly slipping in late June and early July.
Friday's rise on the S&P 500 to a new yearly high was not echoed on the Nasdaq Composite Index /quotes/comstock/10y!i:comp (COMP 1,970, -22.51, -1.13%) , bringing more fodder to the bearish side, according to Cherniawski. "Whenever you have tops not confirmed by another major index, that's another sign something fishy is going on."
Other analysts offered a more benevolent take. "It's simply a case of a tired stock market," said Scott Marcouiller, senior equity-market strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors.
"It's August; the market has had a big rally in a short period of time, and it's due a time-out. We've seen the sessions get more lethargic in the past couple of weeks," he added. Listen to more.
Kate Gibson is a reporter for MarketWatch, based in New York. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2009-8-11 06:38 PM
