短期板块轮动

多吉

真是牛眼看牛，熊眼看熊啊

layschips 发表于 2009-7-30 05:24 PM

弱者恒弱，今儿哥几个XLP XLV XLU XLY XLI XLB XLF XLK都很屁软。。。

软，就是“日完俺软”的那个软。。。

xuetu

谢多老大!你的参照很多哟.开眼开眼

dara

当进攻型板块强/防守型板块弱这种现象再次发生于同一波上升趋势之中，
其ratio形成的double head往往会是一个不小的reversal signal。

附加一个6month chart，体会一下。。。



多吉 发表于 2009-7-31 07:47

I got confusing picture, it really depends on the market stage:

1. Generally attacking stocks are strong in bull market
2. But when market reaches top, that is also the time attacking stocks hit the top and could not continue and reversal will happen like 2000 and 2007


So now if attacking ones could not continue UP, then a reversal happens, but if it is not top, then there is no upside.

多吉

I got confusing picture, it really depends on the market stage:

1. Generally attacking stocks are strong in bull market
2. But when market reaches top, that is also the time attacking stocks hit the top and could not continue and reversal will happen like 2000 and 2007

So now if attacking ones could not continue UP, then a reversal happens, but if it is not top, then there is no upside.
dara 发表于 2009-7-31 04:12 PM

Although I'm sure that I won't get it all right, this is my humble understanding on the issue you raised:

1) when the economy is weak in recession, in general the defensive sectors outperform the broad market. e.g. XLP in my chart (Feb to March of 2009) . Vice versa.
2) when the market starts recovering, it's always led by aggressive sectors (i.e. XLF XLY etc.) while the defensive issues underperform the broad market most of the time.
3) when a true bull market sets in, the aggressive sectors are still in charge but sector rotation steps in and the defensive sectors join the party to kick indices higher.

So back to your last line question:

I don't see sector rotation really takes place in here to fire up all cylinders, they are as weak (or weaker) as those stalling offensive issues.

Thus they both are running out of ammunition to power the winning battle going forward at the hill top.

That's why I see that this bear market rally has come near to an end upon the rolling tape.

Everybody knows the data is cooked, but it takes guts to have a real action.

Savvy?

trueself

周末再找时间探讨理论问题，你不介意吧？


多吉 发表于 2009-7-31 13:52

介意啊。。。。周末还理论，晕死算了

soulvirus

Although I'm sure that I won't get it all right, this is my humble understanding on the issue you raised:

1) when the economy is weak in recession, in general the defensive sectors outperfo ...
多吉 发表于 2009-7-31 16:48

trueself

Although I'm sure that I won't get it all right, this is my humble understanding on the issue you raised:

1) when the economy is weak in recession, in general the defensive sectors outperfo ...
多吉 发表于 2009-7-31 16:48

Diffusion

先顶起来，免得沉底了。周末继续讨论。

bbbuyi

先顶起来，免得沉底了。周末继续讨论。
Diffusion 发表于 2009-7-31 18:41

同意。

Diffusion

So now if attacking ones could not continue UP, then a reversal happens, but if it is not top, then there is no upside.
dara 发表于 2009-7-31 16:12

其实这句话我没理解。 后半句的意思似乎是Not top ---> No upside？ 可是从逻辑上说如果没到顶就是还有upside吧。

我觉得板块轮动应该是分阶段的，在底部，大资金转守为攻，所以进攻型板块应该一致强于大盘。顶部反之。但是在趋势之中，如果是上升趋势，进攻型板块之间会有轮动。因为长期拉升整个大盘，甚至是单个板块，所需要的资金量都非常大。持续拉升意味着庄家需要持续买入，需要不断的资金投入。因此庄家通常的做法是先拉升板块A，充分调动市场人气，然后派发给散户。散户一般都是买入持有型的。所以派发给散户之后，短期之内该板块不会大幅下滑。庄家的资金套现后会集中拉升另一板块，板块B。这样一来，板块A下滑幅度小，而板块B上升幅度大，造成大盘指数继续上扬的现象。这一现象将继续鼓励板块A上的散户持有，因为牛市还在继续。几番轮动下来，庄家就可以用有限的资金将大盘拉起。当然这其中需要吸引无数的跟风资金接手并且持续持有。上升趋势中，防守型板块也会涨，原因是因为经济复苏，所有公司的盈利都会上扬，因此股票涨是正常的。但是绝对需要小心的是，当所有防守型板块都比大盘强，而所有进攻型板块都比大盘弱。这时候往往是上升趋势的末端，虽然防守型板块走强仍然导致大盘指数上升，但是这个现象预示了大资金已经转攻为守。等大资金调整到位，下跌也就该开始了。

所以，简单的概括一下就是：
顶：防守板块一致强于大盘，进攻板块一致弱于大盘。
底：进攻板块一致强于大盘，防守板块一致弱于大盘。
牛市：板块轮动，但至少有一个进攻板块比大盘强。
熊市：板块轮动，但至少有一个防守板块比大盘弱。

Diffusion

周末再找时间探讨理论问题，你不介意吧？


多吉 发表于 2009-7-31 13:52

btmarket

Ding!

逍遥山人

其实这句话我没理解。 后半句的意思似乎是Not top ---> No upside？ 可是从逻辑上说如果没到顶就是还有upside吧。

我觉得板块轮动应该是分阶段的，在底部，大资金转守为攻，所以进攻型板块应该一致强 ...
Diffusion 发表于 2009-8-1 09:50

最后的概括很好。