DOES Gary Shilling MAKE SENSE????

jsl

Saw the link, make a few comments

The economy won't start to recovery until 2010 (versus the current consensus of now).
This is probably true, but the stock market will bottom before that

It will recover because the government will be forced into a second stimulus.
If  a second stimulus is foreced, there won't be a recovery soon after that.

The US consumer rules the world...and the US consumer is cutting back fast
First part is YY. second part won't go forever.

Consumer spending will drop from 70% of GDP to 60% as consumers pay down debt and go on a saving spree.
This will give strength to the recovery once the worst passes.

Most recessions have a positive quarter or two of GDP, so if we get one, it won't mean anything.
It may mean little. Little is something.

The S&P will plunge 35% to 600 by the end of the year.
OK, I won't say it can't happen.

Buy Treasuries
Treasuries is a bubble. It will drop as soon as inflation or dollar causes problems.

leftbank

shafa

hithere

Saw the link, make a few comments

The economy won't start to recovery until 2010 (versus the current consensus of now).
This is probably true, but the stock market will bottom before that

It  ...
jsl 发表于 2009-7-16 00:51

From your reply, I don't see you fully understand this crsis.

jsl

3# hithere


I'd like to see how you view these statements.

I don't see a rosy picture, but I don't see a doom senario either.

If Gary had timed market recovery well in the past, I would like to trust him more than his words can convince me.

pinball

在以下两点上我和Gary shilling持有相同的看法（其他也有很多相同，不过这里只说consumer的事）

"The US consumer rules the world...and the US consumer is cutting back fast"
"First part is YY. second part won't go forever."

本质上全球化就是美欧消费，亚洲生产的模式，尤其是美国的贸易逆差，而美国的经济又是消费拉动的，从这个意义上说，U.S consumer rules the world没有错。尤其是在全球化使得全世界拥有同一个经济周期的时候。

"Consumer spending will drop from 70% of GDP to 60% as consumers pay down debt and go on a saving spree. "
"This will give strength to the recovery once the worst passes."

consumer把钱用于还债和存储对于1-5年之内来说决不是一件好事。用于存储或许在更长时间尺度上是好事，比如10年或更久。用于还债，在任何情况下都不是好事。债务的正确的deleverage的方式是销毁，即以破产的方式拒还债务而使得债权人受损，这才是真正有利经济发展的。

这次危机的根本原因是，过于庞大的债务所产生的cash flow使得负债人（消费者）的消费能力drys up。而cash flow的流入方，债权人（资本食利者）将这些cash flow重新放贷成新生的债务，当负债人（消费者）的可折现资产（除房子外的资产）接近或小于他们的负债（房贷）时，房价对他们的影响将无比重要，而home equity financed credit line更加强了这一过程。所以这次的房价下跌是引子，直接揭开了消费者群体资不抵债（除房子外）的事实。

自我增殖的fix income capital这头怪兽是经济周期之所以不可避免的源头，在capital tax不足以遏制它的成长的时候，只有通过recession/depression债务销毁的方式才能削弱它，重启新一轮的经济增长。在一般的recession中，是通过让过剩的生产方破产的方式清洗那些产业资本及corporate bond的持有者；在depression中，绝大多数的债务种类都被清洗，个人的，企业的，乃至于国家的（1930年代很多国家通过脱离金本位制，实行通货膨胀的方式来清洗社会各界的债务）。

jsl

5# pinball


好贴！ 这样才是讨论问题。最受不了Gary的就是列几个都知道的事实，then make bold statements。晚上我再仔细想想这个债务清洗。

weigoodone01

5# pinball

ding!

ByStander

Saw the link, make a few comments

The economy won't start to recovery until 2010 (versus the current consensus of now).
This is probably true, but the stock market will bottom before that

It  ...
jsl 发表于 2009-7-16 00:51

昨天晚上看CHARLIE ROSE的节目．一个来宾是哈佛的校长．CHARLIE ROSE问他对经济的看法（此人也是经济学家），他说大多数人（经济学家？）认为２０１０的增长率只有１－１．５％．第一个刺激计划的很多钱还没花出去．他反对第二个刺激计划．如果你相信他说的，那明年上半年的ＧＤＰ应该还是负的．当然我不知道此人水平如何，也不知道还有多少人信经济学家的话