股市等候经济复苏的明显迹象

恐慌小猪

如果后经济衰退时期的典型牛市可以分为两个阶段，第一个阶段上涨由投资者对政府刺激计划的盲目信任所推动，第二阶段上涨以经济复苏的明显迹象为动力，那么上一周股市停滞不前表明我们仍处在两者的过渡阶段，但这段时期可能不会持续很久。

在之前九次于经济衰退的深渊中诞生的牛市中，标准普尔500指数在政策驱动的首个阶段平均会上涨27.3%，而此次该指数自3月9日以来已累计上涨40%。因此，股市多头开始离场观望，市场成交量出现萎缩，市场因经济事件没有市场所担心的那么糟而出现上涨的景象也不再重现。

瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)首席投资策略师Carmine Grigoli称，目前投资周期正在接近一个这样阶段，即企业的盈利能力必须出现正在恢复的迹象，才能为牛市下一阶段的开启提供动能。以往衰退过后的牛市通常会在公司收益驱动的第二阶段再上涨17.8%。

将于7月份公布的第二季度公司收益能否刺激投资者的投资热情还不好说。由于收入减少和生产萎缩导致公司利润率下降，Grigoli担心市场可能不会出现经济形势转好的明显迹象。但投资者预期不高能再次令市场转危为安么？

华尔街分析师预计美国公司第二季度利润平均下降34.4%。汤森路透(Thomson Reuters)公司收益研究主管John Butters表示，分析师们还预计第三季度公司利润将下降21.3%，随后的第四季度利润将较去年的历史低位增长180.5%。上述预期似乎已足够低，但随着股市和大宗商品价格反弹，人们的期望值有所上升。

道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数上周收盘累计下跌101点，至8438点，跌幅为1.2%，为连续第二周走低。标准普尔500指数跌2点，至919点，跌幅0.3%，但仍然较3月份创下的低点高36%。不过，科技类股表现依然强于大盘，纳斯达克综合指数涨11点，至1838点，涨幅0.6%，该指数自3月初以来已累计上涨45%。罗素2000小型股指数涨0.5点，至513点，涨幅0.1%。

经济数据喜忧参半。世界银行(World Bank)将全球2009年经济增长预期从-1.7%下调至-2.9%。但美国5月份耐用品订单增长1.8%，包括Bed Bath & Beyond和Palm在内的各行业公司发布了好于预期的收益，就连境况不佳的Office Depot (ODP)都从私募股权投资者那里争取到了3.5亿美元的投资。

那些愿意朝前看的投资者看到了一些向好的迹象。密歇根大学6月消费者信心指数连续第三个月较上年同期出现增长。Bespoke Investment Group的Paul Hickey称，这是该指数在历次经济衰退期间首次出现连续三个月正增长。这引发了一个问题：经济衰退是否已经结束？

似乎越来越多的人认为答案是肯定的。摩根大通(JPMorgan)首席经济学家Bruce Kasman预计工业企业生产将发生周期性强劲反弹，并将美国第三季度经济增长预期从1%上调至2.5%。该行市场策略师Thomas Lee则敦促投资者利用股市回调之际抄底那些容易受经济周期影响的类股。Barclays Capital研究主管Larry Kantor表示，股市仍有进一步反弹的空间，并建议投资者继续持有高风险资产。

Kopin Tan

（本文译自《巴伦周刊》）

ychen222

The End of the Recession?
by John Mauldin
June 26, 2009

The End of the Recession?
I walked into the office yesterday evening and there was someone on CNBC talking about how the 50-day moving average of the S&P 500 rising above the 200-day moving average was telling us the market was getting ready to rise and the recovery had started. I listened to his babbling for another 2-3 minutes and couldn't take it anymore (and no, it was not my friend Larry Kudlow, who is a lot more balanced than whoever was on.)

We keep getting told that the market is telling us "something," usually that the recession is going to end. For some reason, people keep repeating the bromide that the market looks out about 6 months. To that I politely say, rubbish.

Riddle me this, Batman. Did the market see the recession in October of 2007? We were already in recession and the S&P 500 (see below) was making new highs! Where was the market prescience? Did it see the 25%+ drop in January of this year? And I could go back and cite scores of examples where the market "missed" the future turning points over the past ten decades.



What about the shibboleth that the market turns up 6 months before the end of a recession? Sometimes that is true. But does it mean anything? The same people who said it meant something last December and January are saying it means something now. But now it's June and the recovery is not here, so maybe the market wasn't telling us something in January after all.

Gentle reader, there will be a recovery. We will talk about what kind in a few pages, if we have the time. And it is (statistically speaking) likely that the markets will have turned up before the actual recovery. But does that mean anything today?

Go back to the chart above. Notice that in 2003, when the market finally turned up, we were already well out of recession. And the market had a very quick 12% or so drop while we were in recovery, while later we went on to a 90% run-up! Was the drop telling us anything, or do we explain it away?

"In the short run," St. Graham said, "the market is a voting machine. In the long run it is a weighing machine." The voting is based on current sentiment, but what the market weighs in the long run is earnings. The market tries to forecast future income streams. And it gets it wrong as often as it gets it right.

Let's look at this yet another way. This is an important concept, and it should be a component of your economic BS detector. The CNBC host talked in breathless terms about the importance of the 50-day average moving above the 200-day average. It means nothing until it means something, and we won't know what that something is for some time.

Earlier this week (Monday, I think) the 50-day average moved BELOW the 200-day average. The analysts at Bespoke Investment Group noted:

"Going back to 1928, this is the 25th time that the S&P 500 has declined through both of these levels on the same day. On page two we have provided a table showing each of these occurrences as well as the index's returns going forward. Based on those prior instances, the S&P 500's returns going forward have been notably negative. While the S&P 500 has averaged positive returns over the next week, average returns have been negative over the next month, three months, and six months." (emphasis mine)

But 33% of the time, the markets were up six months later, often by quite a bit. And sometimes down quite a bit, but on average only slightly. Which means that as a forward-looking indicator it is interesting but not anything I would put my money (or client money) on!

(I saw some reports that differed, selecting fewer such data points and suggesting that market returns were up after such an event. Logically, that can't be. Let's be generous and just assume sloppy research.)

Before major market moves down, the 50-day average will always move below the 200 average. And the reverse is also true. It is not a sign. It is just what statistically MUST happen. And sometimes they reverse themselves, and sometimes they don't. We have no way on God's green earth of knowing whether the two moves (both up and down) this week will be bullish or bearish six months from now, based simply on the moving averages crossing. You can make the data say anything you want, but you are still just guessing.

Sidebar note: Trend Following 101. I spend a lot of time analyzing trend-following money managers of one kind or another. Basically, they look at data and try to spot trends and then invest in them. A trader who is right 70% of the time is amazing and very rare. 50% is more like it for successful traders. But they have sharp risk controls that cut their losing trades and let their winning trades "ride." Being right 50% of the time can be profitable over time. (Being right 50% of the time is harder than it looks!)

But in the media you get these "analysts" who talk a good game, acting as if a 50-70% probability is something meaningful. "The market has turned. The recession is over." And they say that when we have the first balance-sheet recession in 70 years, yet they want to compare garden-variety recessions to what we have now. Again, we can only know which of the moves (above and below the 200-day moving average) will be the real "indicator" in six months. It is only an indicator today to the extent that we can drive our cars forward looking in the rear-view mirror.

开小差

thx. ding

长叶草

michaelzhang

thx

面包车

看完了。

outer

cartier

听说炒股赚钱

Jennyahwu

恐慌小猪, what do u see