COT Data Favors Dollar Bulls

ppteam

The latest COT positioning suggests that the USD rally is in its very early stages.

Latest CFTC Release Dated June 02, 2009:



The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a specific number of weeks (either 52 or 13).  A reading close to 0 suggests that a bottom is forming and a reading close to 100 suggests that a top is forming.  The readings are for the actual currency, not the currency pair.  For example, a reading of 100 on the Canadian Dollar suggests that the Canadian Dollar is close to a top (USDCAD close to a bottom).
   
Readings of 95 and higher as well as 5 and lower are in boldfaced red type to indicate potential market extremes.  For example, an increasing index is bullish until the index is extreme (near 100), at which time the risk of a reversal or pause in the trend increases.


US Dollar


US Dollar Index: The 13 week index remains at 0, which indicates a bearish sentiment extreme.  Sentiment extremes occur near bottoms so expect a bottom and reversal in the USD.

Implications: bullish


Euro



EUR: The 13 week index has rolled over from 100, which indicates a turn from a sentiment extreme.  A top typically accompanies index readings of 100.

Implications: bearish

British Pound



GBP: The 13 week index is at 100, which indicates a sentiment extreme.  A top typically accompanies index readings of 100.
   
Implications: bearish

Australian Dollar



AUD: The 13 week index has rolled over from 100, which indicates a turn from a sentiment extreme.  A top typically accompanies index readings of 100.

Implications: bearish

New Zealand Dollar



NZD:  The 13 week index is at 100, which indicates a sentiment extreme.  A top typically accompanies index readings of 100.

Implications: bearish

Japanese Yen



JPY:  The 13 week index is at 42 and has not been extreme recently, which is neutral.

Implications: neutral

Canadian Dollar



CAD: The 13 week index remains at 100, which indicates a bullish sentiment extreme.  Sentiment extremes at turns so expect a turn towards CAD weakness (USDCAD bullish).

Implications: bearish (USDCAD bullish)

Swiss Franc



CHF: The 13 week index has rolled over from 100, which indicates a turn from a sentiment extreme.  A top (USDCHF bottom) typically accompanies index readings of 100.

Implications: bearish (USDCHF bullish)

金牛银熊

javamood

happylux

Thanks. I will wait a while before loading gold for long term.

dividend_growth

俺不知道这人是怎么看图的。

明显红线对USD的走向有提前效应：

200703-200801红线都在零下，USD于是跌得跟石头一样；

200801后红线就浮在零上几天，USD后面1-2月就听跌了；

200805红线正式过零后，看看USD的凶劲！

200905后红线慢慢降低，USD也跟着下降；

现在红线低于零了，USD会涨？

dividend_growth

炒货币要跟large speculators，炒股票要跟commercial hedgers，这点千万不能搞错！

javamood

俺不知道这人是怎么看图的。

明显红线对USD的走向有提前效应：

200703-200801红线都在零下，USD于是跌得跟石头一样；

200801后红线就浮在零上几天，USD后面1-2月就听跌了；

200805红线正式过零后，看看U ...
dividend_growth 发表于 2009-6-22 22:23

latecomeinstock

Thanks ppteam .

ppteam

炒货币要跟large speculators，炒股票要跟commercial hedgers，这点千万不能搞错！
dividend_growth 发表于 2009-6-23 01:25 AM

老大，哪些是large speculators？他们现在是什么仓位？偶们好跟风

ppteam

EUR/USD 1.4020 add shorts.

JL01

ppteam

加仓部分走了，最早开的1.4228止损设为平过。

dividend_growth

老大，哪些是large speculators？他们现在是什么仓位？偶们好跟风
ppteam 发表于 2009-6-23 10:58

红线是large speculators, 蓝线是commercial hedgers.

这写文章的老兄好像认为要跟commercial hedgers才对。