本帖最后由 ddd 于 2009-6-21 14:41 编辑
25# haoqi001
No, 2 cannot be lower than where the impulse cycle started.
BTW, although I'm not convinced, the (green) bullish case is not a totally far-fetched thinking. Just look at the rally since 3/6, the wave form so far is very difficult to be seen as corrective. Rather, looking back into the history It's difficult to find a corrective move that had shown this kind of "decisiveness" in its action. That's why I have doubt in the orange or pink cases. The action doesn't look like a w-4 move, but more like w-1 or at least w-A. Time will tell.
Should you ask what kind of FA could possibly support the green case, it boils down to the suseptability of an elevated, long-term inflation. After all, infalation has been a main reason for real estate and all other asset class' appreciation, a main reason for the GDP growth and thus the stock market elevation, over one hundred years of U.S. history. |