下周跌。谁要打赌？要打赌得说出理由，有敢应战的牛牛么？

hithere

赢了MGB的SRS后，现在特骄傲自满。

不过，跌得说出跌的理由是不是？ OK，我赌跌的原因是：

1。下周100多个B的国债要卖。记得有篇分析文章说，今年平均每天有150几亿的国债要卖。别问我LINK在哪，找不着了，数字要错了也是可能的，但一般我记数字还行。
国债应该不可能每次都像上次30年那么好卖，可能更像上次10年那么不好卖。所以，利率会上升。

2。下周FOMC开会，周三出结果。出结果前几天依据花街惯例，会给联储压力，防止升息，虽然没多大可能。但联储有可能减缓购买国债。

3。历史上来说，下周大多数天都是DOWN DAY。

4。今天房贷涨得太快了，就一天的功夫，从昨晚的5.07到今天现在的5.57，一天就半个百分点啊。十年期债券也是一天大涨0.18。这样涨下去，如果冲破4，30年房贷利率就会过6，对房地产会是沉重打击。今天股市才涨了那么一点点，债券利率就涨那么多，再次印证了现在十年债券利率比股市上涨幅度还大的现象。估计联储不会对此听之认之的。

5。还有就是图形技术分析了。我熊眼，分析来分析去，MD总看跌。

牛牛要应战，也的说出个道道才公平。不能只是个感觉派。

此致敬礼！

HiThere

ccc

optapollo

dara

It dropped to 5.43%(which is an average number) on YahooFinance, it was 5.75% several days ago.

paleweak

低调。。。 一高兴就成反知

ice_tea

看戏

Lynxx

不厚道.
股市大跌当前, 谁跟你赌牛啊.

svntn

1# hithere
Let me try to bet with you for the following reasons:

1, it took a lot of money and energy to bring the index to this level, if MM and government stop supporting it, it may slip into spiral and out of control.

2, The confidence to the economy comes from Fed's commitment to do whatever it takes, including purchasing "unlimited" treasuries, to pump the market. If Fed signafies it may weaken from its original position, the risk of second wave of market collapse will rocket.

3, Most of the banks have just issued new shares, and I don't think those subscribers have enough time to unload their newly purchased shares, would MM trap their clients/partners?

4, based on RIMM's ER, it is likely most Q2 earnings will "beat/in line" estimates again, an outcome which doesn't support significant downside.

5, sideline monies are waiting for good opportunity to step in. It could turn out to be a bear trap.

with all these said, I am 100% short/put, because I believe it is still a BEAR market, and all uptrend will be proven paper tigers, just as the market did in April 1930.

jeff110

里里外外这么多人看跌,能不能跌就很难说了.

wiggler

dng

coexist

看熊的人太多了，所以不跌

dividend_growth

看明天的数据了。