有人知道大银行如Ｃ，ＷＦＣ等的ＣＤＳ吗？

ByStander

江湖传言这些银行的ＣＤＳ已涨到去年十月十一月的水平，不知能否证实一下．

Cobra

THE DISCUSSION WILL SOON GROW LOUDER
ABOUT THE “BANKS”: Recently, given all the hoopla
surrounding the banks and their forays into TARP and toxic
assets have subsided recently, and for this we think it is a
good thing. Certainly Bank of America’s Ken Lewis is happy
that he hasn’t been in the spotlight in a week or so. But
perhaps that is about to change, for over the past several
days – the S&P decline has been matched by the corporate
credit markets – with prices back to late-May levels. What
is interesting is that the credit default swaps (CDS) of the
banks have been rising rather sharply – which simply means
the market wonders whether or not they recent capital
raising efforts were sufficient to offset a perhaps “weakerthan-
expected” economy. Certainly Elizabeth Warren – the
chair of the TARP Oversight Panel – has indicated that
“stress tests” need to be performed again given the
unemployment levels have risen faster than the test allowed
for.
To this end, the Treasury’s stress test results of May 7th
told banks that they needed to raise $65 billion, with Bank
of America (BAC) needing to raise $30 billion of this total.
Now, the BAC 5-year CDS stands at 263 bps, which is the
highest since May 5th and up 33 bps from yesterday’s 230
bps level. As for Citigroup, their 5-year CDS is at 497 bps
up 50 bps on the day – also at its highest point sin May 5th,
and up from 320 bps on June 1st. Wells Fargo (WFC) 5-
year CDS is at 157 bps – up 12 bps from yesterday’s close,
and up from June 1st’s 115 bps level – it is also the highest
level since May 7th.
These aren’t inconsequent ional moves to be sure, and
certainly the rise in CDS’s called the bear stock market
previously. Is this the “canary in the coal mine” as to why
intra-day rallies are “failing”, and are the credit bears pulling
out their claws given the TARP money has been paid back.
Can one only wonder what the stock market landscape
would look like if any of the 10 banks that paid back their
TARP money have go back “hat in hand” once again due
to continuing losses based on a “worse-than-expected”
economy? Can one wonder if there will be any confidence
left in the banks and the US Treasury? We really don’t want
to think about it, but we have to understand it.

ByStander

THE DISCUSSION WILL SOON GROW LOUDER
ABOUT THE “BANKS”: Recently, given all the hoopla
surrounding the banks and their forays into TARP and toxic
assets have subsided recently, and for this we th ...
Cobra 发表于 2009-6-18 12:12

多谢班长，看来ＣＤＳ是涨了，不过还没到去年的程度

Nancy168

如果这是真的, 就找到了下一轮跌势的很有力的证据, 配合第二季度报表.

Nancy168

补充一下, 这是非常敏锐的看点, 谢谢两位老大.

colderdown

It's close to pre-lehman level, so does MM and commerical bonds. You know what you shall do.

lite1067

yes, for many banks.. i will post a diagram later on

soulvirus

请lite老大贴图图

lite1067

请lite老大贴图图
soulvirus 发表于 2009-6-18 21:24

in my blog already.

http://blog.hutong9.com/space.ph ... o=blog&id=13465

soulvirus

看到了，谢谢

soulvirus

这样的话，难道预示要大跌？金融领头？

penguin