ted spread 说大底已过？

NumberRules

信者得救，我是不信的。

ted spread说的是“the cost of borrowing in dollars between banks”，现在已经回到2007年crisis爆发前的水平。但是故事是要明白ted spread要怎么样才能降低，就很耐人寻味了。

很简单，两种方法。第一，情况好转了，银行们开始互相借钱，抵押物不用上底裤了，衬衣估计也行。这个我不信的。M2M改的是什么样的toxic asset的价钱，别人不知道，自己人还不会算? 老爸让大儿子把烂了的玩具拿去当好的卖，小儿子是不会买的。

第二，银行多钱用了，所以借得少了，同样，利息就不用那么高了。要多钱用，也有两个方法。第一，看起来多钱了。这个只能是股市里面发生的事。但是实际营运费用并没多，支出也没有少，但是大家看股票，至少“看上去很美”吧？这个第二呢，就是真多钱用了。哪来？存款。这个就是现在发生的。大家不敢花钱了，都存银行去，各个企业也是尽量提高现金储备。这个是个defence move，好还是不好就自己判断了。

所以，看存款量的增加大小就知道mm唱什么戏了。啥？mm没说？自己找啊。要骗你钱，谁讲过真话的？

小亥

现在是Global recession, and quantitative easing. ted spread说明不了啥了。

polopolo

TED spread basically means if one will fail in the next X days (X is usually quite short).

No, the funding demand is still there. No bank can carry such a huge balance sheet without getting funding from somewhere. (Or they can just liquidate and collapse, like LEH). They need to roll over debt night after night, so it is not like you can reduce funding because you are doing less business. Just carrying the existing deal requires money.

TED spread is low because all banks are effective guaranteed, whether they will lend is another matter.

jannychai

looking

布袋和尚

ultimate

wiggler

good

leftright

acura

thanks

winwise

1# NumberRules

不错不错。
所谓数据易搞，人心难测

chnr1

ted spread has been down for a few months

NumberRules

ted spread has been down for a few months
chnr1 发表于 2009-5-20 13:39

不奇怪，去年我就说过了，10月初吧，ted spread跟mkt一起下。

NumberRules

the voice sounds alike 大P股 ... "呕哈哈哈。。。。熊熊莫怕" again and again...

It's too bad because nothing seemly new to us...   and, the chance is still 50-50, isn't it???
hfdcai2000 发表于 2009-5-19 22:41

i think i have provided a bit constructive ideas for the mkt reading rather than tell u what that is. i am sorry u think that s cliche.