Treasury Bonds - Buying Opportunity?(zz)

oldfairy

Treasury Bonds - Buying Opportunity?


Above is a weekly chart of TLT which is an ETF that tracks 20 year treasury bonds. The first thing I'd like to point out is that the bond market has a strong tendency to bottom out during the month's of May and June. This seasonal pattern has been very dominant over the years going back several decades. The orange arrows point out the May/June bottoms that we've seen take place in the last 5 years.

Notice also that TLT has pulled back quite a bit from last December's high and appears to have found support at a very important trendline. The stochastic oscillator in the lower pane is also in the buy zone. Many big rallies have taken place once the stochastic oscillator moved below 20 and then turned back up.

Below is a seasonal chart of treasury bonds over the past 29 years which clearly shows the seasonal rally that usually takes place around this time of year. So far the stochastics have NOT confirmed the buy trade as of yet however I did want to post the above chart so that we all can be prepared if indeed the seasonal rally does begin to show itself this year. As always, we'll see what happens.




Posted by Kevin

老船

Ding!

北京哥哥

Thanks，but do you have any fundmental explanation for this seasonal tendecy?

acura

thanks

dasb

ding