Bulls failed to defend 900 and today might be a MDD

zhyuan04 · 发表于 2009-5-12 10:58 AM

本帖最后由 zhyuan04 于 2009-5-12 12:18 编辑

Bulls definitely get exhausted after pushing SPX to 930 and XLF to 13 twice last week. Now it seems that bears are taking over bulls' field without spending too many efforts. I am a bear and use SPX 930 as a stop.

For those who want to be bears (but no yet), you can wait patiently until SPY go back to retest the broken bearish rising wedge (around SPY 91-91.50) to add short positions and remember to cut loss if new high is made any time.

buctusa · 发表于 2009-5-12 10:59 AM

welcome back, brother!

sioc · 发表于 2009-5-12 11:05 AM

HI, Where are you lately

zhyuan04 · 发表于 2009-5-12 11:08 AM

本帖最后由 zhyuan04 于 2009-5-12 12:09 编辑

Heal my wound for about a month. All my shorts were stopped out last month when SPX broke 845. Got burned severely.

3# sioc

zhyuan04 · 发表于 2009-5-12 11:16 AM

It seems that Bears are winning the war of SPY 90.3 defended by bulls. If today SPY could close below 90, then the first target for bears is SPX 870-880.

gege88 · 发表于 2009-5-12 11:20 AM

thank you. btw, what is MDD???

wower · 发表于 2009-5-12 11:21 AM

zhyuan04 · 发表于 2009-5-12 11:22 AM

MDD = Major Distribution Day

6# gege88

gege88 · 发表于 2009-5-12 11:30 AM

8# zhyuan04

Thank you very much!
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Just give it a quick google, an unofficial answer put as follow: (hope it helps to other frogs like me )

The terms "accumulation day" and "distribution day" were coined by financial paper Investors Business Daily.

An "accumulation day" is a day in which the major indices (S&P, Nasdaq, etc.) realize a gain AND on higher volume than the previous day. This tells us mutual funds, hedge funds, and other institutions are behind the buying.

A "distribution day" is one in which the major indices realize a loss AND on higher volume. This points to institutional selling.

When one starts to spot "distribution days" in an uptrending market, or "accumulation days" in a downtrending market, it usually is an early warning signal of a potential trend reversal.

xiaobailong · 发表于 2009-5-12 12:28 PM

8# zhyuan04

Thank you very much!
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Just give it a quick google, an unofficial answer put as fol ...
gege88 发表于 2009-5-12 12:30

这个是通常的Accumulation Day和Distribution Day.

Cobra在这个基础上扩展成了Major Accumulation Day 和Major Distribution Day. 也就是说在上述条件之后又增加了一个条件，

上涨股票的个数: 下跌股票的个数 >= 9:1 for MAD
下跌股票的个数: 上涨股票的个数 >= 9:1 for MDD

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