Smell some fishy on this market

KeepInHand

-The stress report had been all known by big guys for long time, and government postponed reporting for long time
-Facts are some banks do need more capitals, that means these banks will raise capital by either issue new stock or government injection,
what if government published this earlier, will WFC get $20-$24 new issue stock price tag?
-Many bad news had been digested quitely without causing big market shake up, like Chrysler and GM BK.
-Government and big banks are Zhuang Jia, and this market is more like Chinese market manipulated by government and special interest groups

WaveRider

很好吗。世界大同，美国对三个代表精神活学活用。

-The stress report had been all known by big guys for long time, and government postponed reporting for long time
-Facts are some banks do need more capitals, that means these banks will raise capita ...
KeepInHand 发表于 2009-5-8 09:23

hhli3

Then who will buy those "pumped" stocks of those banks?

dara

WFC/MS sell stock, stock drops,

but BAC/C sell stock, stock up.

There is no logic in this market.

ayibei

WFC/MS sell stock, stock drops,

but BAC/C sell stock, stock up.

There is no logic in this market.
dara 发表于 2009-5-8 09:28

KeepInHand

Here are what I think:

-Financial sector is in "bad" shape in such a sense that many of them do need capital to make its balance sheet looks good to handle any future shake up.  Most of problems come from ABS and bad loan write down.
-In order to ease the pressure of these banks raising capital in such a bear market, government co-operate with them to pump the market up, so that these new stock issue can get better price tag so that to ease the pressure of government's printing money.
-The new capital raising is just beginning, there is no reason for these manipulators to dump the market big at this moment.

Market will stay at this high level for a while. It could stay or have another jump. The bottom line is in the near term, there is no big winning chance for aggressive bears who use leveraged tools. jm2c

huaxue09

The price base is completely different. The price of BAC is much lower than WFC, but the future profitability of BAC is much higher than WFC.

小兵

My understanding is that they are going to raise capital by converting government TARP from bond to common stocks. Therefore, no need to find new buyers.

xiaoxiaozhang

Can't more agree with you.

dividend_growth

问题是政府下面的意向是什么？

tape

这轮因为次贷的sell off应该是告终了,就看接下来的几个月,信用卡,和商业贷款是恶化还是变好.
感觉变坏的速度在降低,但谈不上变好.到头还要看失业率,和企业赢利.不能老是说少亏损,就是好.
现在就是花街把大家的标准都降下来,只要差不多就是好消息.

BlueRiver

有道理， 不过， 作为散户， follow the trend就行了。 很久没有这样体验数钱 的快感了

从基本面来看， 还是很糟糕。 房价比去年又降了10 - 15%， 每个block又都大量的office, warehouse for rent, commerical mortgage 是个很严重的问题。

wufei!

好啊，好啊，熊都死光了，天下大同了。哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈。

slcgh

熊都死光了，天下大同了。哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈。

Roubini

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124182311010302297.html

Banks Won Concessions on Tests

小亥

FISHY.FISHY.