其实应该讨论下今天T-Bond Yield的变化，这很重要...

X!nG

变化很大...

X!nG

我靠，这么重要的事，竟然没人关注...

soulvirus

这个最拿手的是lite老大,你要问他

WaveRider

俺一直在关注，可是不清楚对股市的影响。现在好像还在正常范围内。请老熊和股帝说说吧。

X!nG

俺一直在关注，可是不清楚对股市的影响。现在好像还在正常范围内。请老熊和股帝说说吧。
WaveRider 发表于 2009-5-7 16:58

这个绝对不是正常走法...

layschips

如果真和天朝有关
这招釜底抽薪可真够毒的。。。
或者应该说天朝已经看清楚了美政府的险恶居心？

http://www.reuters.com/article/c ... rtualBrandChannel=0
"A U.S. government auction of 30-year bonds met a dismal reception on Thursday, driving down bond and stock prices and raising fears the United States may face difficulty financing spending to stimulate the economy.

The $14 billion auction met below-average demand from investors, who forced the government to pay a higher yield. An extended trend of rising yields could force up longer-term interest rates throughout the economy."

http://www.reuters.com/article/c ... USN0740091220090507
""The auction is big news because now it's showing that maybe the Chinese don't want our bonds. If the cost of capital for the United States becomes more expensive, then the recession is going to take that much longer to get out of," said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey."

qwycd

看了一下短期note没变化，2、3、5、10年的yield都有很大幅度的上涨。这个绝对不是什么好事情，very bad！绝对值得关注。

NingCaiChen

thanks

小亥

When nobody wants T Bond, they want to jump in stock market? Look at what happens to the stock market today. Bears definitely have an upper hand.

Intuitively, we can think bond holders are more conservative and focus on the long term. Under the current risky condition, they just throw the towels and refuse to put the money on the table to get such a lower return. This reflects how much risk the current economy possesses.  Fed wants to manipulate long term rate, but failed miserably.  I can imagine what  the Big Ben will tell O8 ----: "At least we tried."

zooie

Agreed. It is the most important development today.

Stress test today, payroll tomorrow, will not bring real surprises.  Right before QE, 10y is ~3%, after that, 2.5%, just a few weeks later, 10y spiked up to 3.3%. This is unexpected in the deflation/QE world. If yield keeps going up to 3.5% - 4% quickly, Fed would be in a very difficult situation: average down and buy another 1T bond? or start taking money out of the system while nobody knows if recovery is really at the horizon or not?  Market may find it positioned incorrectly and need to price in this new  risk.