Are you scared to miss opportunity of a big turn-around?

n748

First, let's take a look at current rally as of the close on Friday,
S & P : UP 31.54 % from its low
NASDAQ: UP 35.89% from its low
DOW: up 26.92% from its' low

If you missed the rally so far, obiviously you've missed a really big one already.

Now the question is: whether you should change your mind and buy at this price in case the market continues its run for the higher.

If you are in this market for some years, common senes tells you not to do it at this moment. Put bull or bear bias aside, at least you should wait for a pull back to load even if you are bull minded.

However, having said that, with my feeling of this market as a small bear, MMs have really taught me a big lesson. It's really tough to go short in the past 2 weeks, even at the small position I have.

During the weekend, I have read some reviews, and take a brief look at the historical movements of market. I asked myself a question, are you scared to have all your 401 K set in cash in fear of missing a golden opportunity to recoup your losses in 2008/2009? How long am I ready to wait? what if this market put up a 5-6 months rally?

I'm not really sure, but it's very hard for me to load at this moment.

However, many times the hardest thing to do is usually the right thing for me to do. It proves itself many many times in the past. Is this another example for me?

Another lesson learned in the future when I look back? I don't want that to happen.

I feel I need some advice, but again, when I really need some help, I find I have myself only to help me.

Another lesson I learned in the past is that I would've won big if I hold on to my belief by not changing my mind at the last minute, since I have lot of experiences of cutting at the buttom (as my 401K position current is in), or of buying at the top (as some of my 401K position I sold at the bottom indicates).

You can tell I'm confused.

If I step back, and take a deep breath, I know I need a sober mind to make a good decision for myself. I tried to remove the emotion part out of this decision-making process. No fear, and no greedy.

I would say I'd better continue to wait for a pullback, based on my general feeling, and knowledge of current economic situation, and market condition.

I made my decision, and I myself bear the consequence. Oh, actually my family as a unit will be impacted together.

401K should be good to buy and hold, if market is not as volatile as it has been for the past 1 and half years. If I can not profit from bear market rally, I can live with that. I will get back into the market when it stablizes. I know it will be too late in the sense of missing great run-up, but I also potentially avoided another big leg down.

This is just an effort to pursuade myself. Not neccesary helps to make a good decision though.

dara

No way, NAZ up 36%, I really doubt many would buy and hold at this level.

n748

2# dara


Exactly, Hopefully MMs have lost enough followers to continue this rally. I would suggest not to short too aggressively because MMs can take advantage of shorts' stop loss covering to maintain this up trend move.

Let them play it without other participators.