Tomorrow's call (4/28): an UP day

firecs

I have been calling the next day's market move correctly 3 times in a row since last Wed when this blog was launched. (Thursday and Friday's higher highs; Monday's negative close, blog:http://foxswing.blogspot.com/)

I am using the Pivot Trend System to help me make market calls usually after each day's close. The Pivot Trend System is not developed by myself. Instead, it is rooted originally from a well-known market foundation theory, and developed by a team including me. Historically testing results show a +70% winning percentage on all buy and sell signals. Today, I am not going to talk about the system into much detail, but hope one day I could share with you some ideas behind that system and how each call is essentially made.

Alright, let's go over today's market move and what I traded.

Market opened with a gap down, but the pull-up in the morning filled the gap and recovered all the loss. I am still confused about that 10:15Am's sudden up with huge volume, which made me close all my short positions (with some gains on SRS and SDS, see the performance panel on the right) and be very defensive to protect my trading assets. Then market re-tested the open low and got some support to bounce a little bit, ending with a very volatile close. I was able to load BGZ in the afternoon's downtrend and closed it with +2% gain before market trying to bounce higher.

QQQQ seems inevitable to test SMA(200), which is about 1.5% higher from here.
Market closed negatively with lighter volume, esp. for finance sector XLF. SPY, IYR and XLF all stand above SMA(10) in closing prices. All of these contribute a bullish base for tomorrow. Plus the Pivot Trend System signaled BUY at close. If market could open with gap up or effectively stand above 870 on SPX in the early morning, a huge up day would be very possible, i.e. a new high (higher than 875) will be established toward tomorrow's close. I won't be surprised if that happens. What it needs to do is get some help from finance to lift the market up. XLF consolidated at high levels and refused to go down hard, no matter how weak you can tell recently in finance, which scares bears in any aspect.

If tomorrow closes with a big loss, I will need to re-consider the call, and look into the market carefully.

Currently positions, URE and FAS (wow, 3X bullish for me) loaded after hours, which are listed in the performance panel.

Of course, there is no sure thing in this market. My call and the signal from the system could be wrong, sometimes it could be wrong very badly. So reduce your risk and put your guards on as always!

See other market commentaries, trading plans, and technical analysis at http://foxswing.blogspot.com/
Good luck!

暖漾

sofa.

awang

pretty open to public. DING..

lucky99

Thanks!

firecs

Bulls, hope that you were not shaken out early this morning with a sizable gap down open. See realtime market commentary and trades on http://foxswing.blogspot.com/

awang

Ding.. Nice prediction. It is one good character.

firecs

So far, so good! See how it closes!

HOD? or sell-off with the concern of GDP number tomorrow?

bayliner1979

今天全天到目前为止画了个rising wedge，结果难料。

bayliner1979

果然又红了，待会儿说不定又绿了。

bayliner1979

绿鸟两秒钟，又红鸟，哈哈哈，调戏牛熊。