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发表于 2009-4-13 10:53 PM
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The current rally is already up 26 per cent from the March 2009 lows. It already qualifies as a big sucker. We may have longer and further to go. We are looking for a rally that could take us to 11,000 to 11,500 over the next several months. But it could also tail off near 9,000. A rally of that former magnitude would see us up at maximum 78 per cent - really big sucker territory - or we could be up only about 40 per cent if the latter target is hit, a respectable big sucker.
The period 1938-42 saw four sucker rallies, three big suckers and a mini-sucker. Each rebound failed to take out the high of the previous rally. The final low in 1942 was only marginally below the low of 1938. This time we could be considerably below the March 2009 lows (6,443) if the 4,000 target were realized. Irrespective, the rules are the same. This is a period to restructure for longer-term investors. It is also a period for more aggressive investors to recoup some losses. But investors should never be fooled into believing that the bear market that got underway in January 2000 is anywhere near over. We are just moving into another phase.
The current rally has been running into resistance in the 8,000 area for the Dow Jones Industrials (850 for the S&P 500 and 9,000 TSX Composite). As we move towards the close April 9, 2009 we appear to be trying to close over this resistance zone. This is good news if the rally is to continue from here. Support for the DJI is important at this stage at 7,600/7,700, for the S&P 500 800 and the TSX Composite 8,700. Only firmly below these levels would we say the current rally is in trouble. But a close over these levels could turn us higher with targets in this move to 9,000 DJI, 900 and higher for the S&P 500 and 9,500/10,000 for the TSX Composite.
For the period 2000 to present there have been: three mini-suckers (average gain 15 per cent); six big suckers (average gain 25 per cent); and one really big sucker (93 per cent).
The current big sucker has already attained the average gain big sucker gain this decade but remains below the average big sucker of the 1929-49 bear (44 per cent) and the 1966-82 bear (38 per cent). Is there more to come or is this it for this phase? |
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