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本帖最后由 jamesmith 于 2012-8-14 11:23 AM 编辑
In the previous months, corn price went up, feeder price droped, live cattle range bound
live cattle is young cattle from calf stage to 600 to 800 pounds. At this point, they become feeder cattle, and get transfered to feedlot. Usually they stay in feedlot for few more months and average slaughter weight is 1250 pounds. Because of corn price rising, they are slaughtering feeder cattles earlier, creating a short term burst of supply making price go down.
However they still have to feed live cattles with expensive corn, this will cost producers to lose money, therefore 1) they can raise price 2) they can reduce production which cause supply to go down and ultimately price to go up. When live cattle prices goes up, feeder cattle prices eventually have to go up.
If we assume seasonal consumption for meat doesn't change much(how much people are willing to pay to eat beef? will they switch to pork?), there's more demand for meat in late summer and autumn season. There could be trading opportunity.
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发表于 2012-8-14 11:23 AM
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