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发表于 2011-10-21 09:42 PM
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S&P future closed today above 1230. Today is OE and pit was relatively quiet. I have my doubt about whether it is a genuine breakout or not. However, the end of the day ramp appears to make the breakout genuine.
There are again 2 main possibilities at play for Monday - range extension and then reversal. We have a mature consolidation range between 1184 to 1230 (roughly 50 points). Typical range extension is in the vicinity of 10%, making 1235 high a possible top of this move. If we close Monday under 1230 then the probability of a full retracement of the smaller degree consolidation range from 1184 to 1230 is very high, and a full retracement of the 1100 to 1230 range a much higher probability event move as well. Depending on where we close under 1230, it may become a very high reward to risk trade (and possibly an even high probability trade).
On the other hand, if there is no weakness on Monday and any retracements to 1230 - 1235 are being bought, then we would be in a trending move to the upside (or vertical development in market profile speak). I would look to enter with the trend. Unfortunately, during such trending moves, it is hard to gauge a target, making reward to risk calculations difficult. There are 2 possible targets that I can see: (1) we will trade up to 1250 to 1280 mature consolidation region (formed between 10th June to 28th June). Most likely stopping price is middle of this range. If we do reverse from here, then I'd give the market a very high probability of being in bear mode. (2) we will trade up to the larger consolidation range between 1250 and 1350 (formed between March and July). Most likely stopping price is the 1300 middle of the range. If we do get up to that level, then bullish scenario will likely prevail and further upside possible after some retracement.
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