也谈个股----老蛇，我再挺你一把，不过

dxzhu

老大怎么看HEB？谢谢

xz214

gold50

colderdown

Lot of HTers asked about individual biotech. stock, I can't give you misled answers, but here are certain rules I like to share with you guys:
1. I like big molecule drugs since they are relatively new, futhermore, their tox profiles are a bit better than small molecules. At last, FDA did not have clear bio similar rule for big molecule yet, herein, those drugs patents' live may not have such big impact on their sales comparing with small molecule.

2. For small molecules, right now there are huge focus in oncology indications, a new way of thinking is customized drug. Thus, I think you can bet some on this area. However, those drugs won't be block busters. Here is simple cal. for their cash burn rate and value: PhaseII, burn rate at least $2M per month, good result can be valued around $80M; Phase III, burn rate at least 5M per month, good result can be valued around $120M

3. Small molecule drug for other broader indications, such as RA, diabetes etc. can have much higher burn rate due to bigger patients pools, more bio markers etc. Most expensive one I knew is more than $100M per month fro phase III. It is high risk play but the reward can be very handsome too. First in class type of phaseIII can easily valued more than $300M for a small biotech. firm.