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发表于 2011-5-3 07:09 AM
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Markets likely to cheer Conservative majority
.David Pett May 3, 2011 – 12:15 AM ET | Last Updated: May 3, 2011 12:16 AM ET
Canadian investors got what they wanted when Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservatives won a majority last night, putting an end to almost seven years of minority rule in the country.
The Conservatives fought off a torrid challenge from Jack Layton and the New Democrats, who finished second in the polls and became the official opposition for the first time ever at the federal level. The Liberals finished a distant third.
“Suffice it to say, markets prefer majority to minority, and known to unknown,” said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. “All financial markets are likely to benefit, at least moderately.”
At the start of the campaign, investors contemplated one of two outcomes: a Conservative majority or a Conservative minority.
While in general markets like majority governments best, it was widely believed that a fourth consecutive Harper minority would be mostly positive for the loonie, stocks and other financial assets, particularly given how well Canada’s economy and financial markets have performed in the wake of the financial crisis.
To some degree this was true only when the Liberal government was expected to finish as the runner-up in the election.
However, when NDP support surged over the past two weeks of the campaign, it started to look like the perennial also-ran would become the official opposition and possibly form a government through a coalition, and investors started to get nervous.
“Markets have awoken to the surge in pre-federal election polls of the left-wing Jack Layton-led NDP,” Mr. Watt said last week in a note to clients.
“The federal election … may well result in more, not less, political uncertainty, which could translate into increased Canadian dollar volatility.”
Greg Newman, a senior wealth advisor at the Newman Group, a ScotiaMcLeod affiliate based in Toronto, said concerns about NDP plans to raise corporate taxes and establish a carbon emissions cap-and-trade system for major industries, including the oil sector, power generators and manufacturers can now be put to rest.
“Canadian equities will be thrilled with a conservative majority and will give the TSX a shot in the arm,” he said.
“Foreign investors would view it as Canada being open for business and avoiding the wayward flirtations posited by other jurisdictions … over recent years.”
Benjamin Tal, a senior economist at CIBC World Markets, also believes markets will react positively to the Conservative majority and predicts the loonie could rise over the next couple of days.
“The Conservative agenda is probably the most market friendly of any of the agenda,” he said.
“A majority removes any uncertainty about the Conservatives being able to exercise that agenda. That’s good for markets.”
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发表于 2011-5-1 07:38 AM