Perfect Wave - 2011-Q4

snowrider

I am starting a new thread for 2011 Q4 (Oct - Dec), including EUR, SP, Gold, and JPY. My wave counts of last quarter can be found from:
http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod ... &extra=page%3D1

Elliott Wave reference can be found from:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

My labeling for wave degrees in different time frames:
Monthly - [[[I]]], [[[II]]], [[[III]]], [[[IV]]], [[[V]]], [[[A]]], [[[B]]], [[[C]]]
Monthly - [[I]], [[II]], [[III]], [[IV]], [[V]], [[A]], [[B]], [[C]]
Weekly - [I], [II], [III], [IV], [V], [A], [B], [C]
Weekly - I, II, III, IV, V, A, B, C
Daily - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, a, b, c
Daily - _1, _2, _3, _4, _5, _a, _b, _c
Hourly - __1, __2, __3, __4, __5, __a, __b, __c

joep

snowrider 发表于 2011-10-1 15:05
I am starting a new thread for 2011 Q4 (Oct - Dec), including EUR, SP, Gold, and JPY. My wave counts ...

snowrider

回复 joep 的帖子

不要暈
偶是很爽 :)
置頂偶自己的貼 :)

bucks

can't wait for the charts

snowrider

10/01/2011 Monthly Charts

Comments are welcome!

ppteam

how to trade monthly chart ?

mayoutu

楼主的SPY月线图和我的预测几乎一样啊，哈哈，我和大牛的一样，hoho

永恒罗马

snowrider

回复 ppteam 的帖子

Definitely it's impossible to DT with monthly charts.  They just provide some big pictures so that we know where we stand at in the history.  And also, they are useful for making the decision on long term position (e.g., funds or retirement accounts).

snowrider

回复 mayoutu 的帖子

mayoutu - 牛眼看牛 熊眼看熊  ... see there are two lines in the chart, one is the purple line (which is my preferred count), and the other one is the grey line (an alternative count).  So people can pick their happy one from those two lines - everyone is happy.  :)

snowrider

Some interesting discussion:

wave 理论有没有引进成交量这个概念？

Actually, yes, Elliott Wave does take volume into consideration.  The following is an extract from Elliott Wave International:

"Elliott used volume as a tool for verifying wave counts and in projecting extensions. He recognized that in any bull market, volume has a natural tendency to expand and contract with the speed of price change. Late in a corrective phase, a decline in volume often indicates a decline in selling pressure. A low point in volume often coincides with a turning point in the market. ..."

That is a long section talking about volume.  I watch volume when I trade.  I don't put volume on the charts of my wave counts, in order not to confuse people.

人性都是贪婪又胆小的。。3波5波，其中的某一波没有忽悠到足够的人进来（量不够）或者忽悠进来的人太多，会影响到下一波的时间和高度吧？

Yes, good point!!!  One way we use to predict if a wave-5 would have extension is checking the volume.  If the wave-5 has equal or more volume than wave-3, then most likely it could have extension, which means a wave-6789 would happen next.

举个例子。比如股票spring & thrust, 或者突破，大庄家突破了，但是发现没有什么人进入（量不够），庄家这个时候想：ctm的，突破拉高没有忽悠到什么钱进来，再向上会被他人short高顶，股票自己全扛着岂不亏大了，只好快速炸盘让和他在同一条阵线的人出去不了，想short的人也来不及。 如果是在大牛市，无量突破，虽然发现没有什么人进入（量不够），但庄家这个时候想：ctm的，就让那帮人short，我继续拉得更高，挤死他们，这样sqeeze得股票sky高(琢磨着nflx就是这样，单看这两年标准大牛屎啊）。
...

That's what happened in the gold market also!  上破又下破 洗盤刷盤  軋空又砸盤  太難做了!

ppteam

回复 snowrider 的帖子

I think not only it's impossible to trade for DT, but also it's impossible for any kinds of trades, long term, mid term, or whatever.

which successful trader/investor use monthly chart anyway? most likely the answer is none

snowrider

ppteam 发表于 2011-10-1 16:56
回复 snowrider 的帖子

I think not only it's impossible to trade for DT, but also it's impossible fo ...

Talking about successful traders ... how we define what the success is?

Talking about trading with monthly charts, it really depends on what time frame a trader uses.  Some people even look into higher timeframe like quarterly charts.

Think about this ... if a fund has some holdings that last for years, will you still say that they are based on lower timeframes like weekly or daily charts?

snowrider

Some interesting discussion:

...量在价先，，， 反过来，价格对量有什么影响？ 比如上涨速度快或者价格高对后来的量怎么影响呢？价格高，有时不愿买，有时chase high (比如认为价值发现或者回归）。wave里面有些什么判断？

"价格对量" - Why do we want to worry about that?  We care more about the price - buy low and sell high to make profit.
"上涨速度快" - It will be forming some price area with thin volume in that fast move.  The fast move is the dot dot dot that links between accumulation and distribution areas.
"上涨速度快或者价格高对后来的量怎么影响呢" - After the price is lifted to their target area, the insider will start unloading their holdings.  Then we will see a plateau start forming with huge volume first then decreaing volume (because of unloading).
"wave里面有些什么判断？" - Wave structures/behaviors/patterns/characteristics actually explain what stage the market might be in.

时间和空间，小散伤疤好需要一段时间，有range market，这个时间在wave 理论里面怎么处理？

About the "range market", its wave structure could 333, 335, 3x3, 3x3x3, or even more complex combinations.  In most case, a range market is a continuation consolidation in the existing market direction.  It could be the wave-2,4,6,8,b.

是不是一般就到9波？ ES 1min-chart 最牛的时候我就看到9波（其中5波上涨）。。量在7，9波时慢慢枯萎了？其它的比如和fib retracement的关系怎么样？ nflx 大牛时不只9波吧？
》》黄金之类的是不是比大盘还难分析？
...

Yep yep yep ... good observation!  9 waves, then 13 waves next.
I don't know about NFLX.  Probably it had extensions over extensions again and again.
I love trading gold, but it's much harder than trading EUR and SP because gold's volume is much lower.  Gold's slippage could be very big.  I have had more than $5 slippages many times on stop orders, which I hate so much.  My favorite ones are still EUR and SP.

like2swing

Why makes EUR so strong in your purple wave count? Why SPY doesn't make new high but only EUR makes new high in your purple count? thanks.

Ed02

snowrider

like2swing 发表于 2011-10-1 19:35
Why makes EUR so strong in your purple wave count? Why SPY doesn't make new high but only EUR makes  ...

I ... I ... I don't know why.  
Are you asking me the fundamental reason?  If so, I don't know (, and I am a TA purist and don't care any FA).
Or are you asking me about the technical reason?  If so, then all I can say is that those wave counts are essentially just my guess.  There are two counts for each - please pick the bullish count if you are a 牛, or take the bearish count if you are a 熊.  (So everyone is happy!)  

snowrider

like2swing 发表于 2011-10-1 19:35
Why makes EUR so strong in your purple wave count? Why SPY doesn't make new high but only EUR makes  ...

Besides, there is no absolute 正相關 or 負相關 between GC, SP, EUR, or JPY.  They can all go to the same direction or the opposite ones ... anything can happen.  The market's movement is nothing but conspiracy ... the bigger the conspiracy is, the bigger the market move is.

qnxly

hunting

谢老大，，