2012-06-W2

snowrider

No trade for medium- and long-term position today.  The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:

Long Term - Big troop dolloar amount allocation: TLT 75%, SPY 25%, cash 0% (no change)
Medium Term - Small troop stock holding: TQQQ, FAS (no change)

The market had a high opening and went higher (close to what we expected yesterday ... not that super strong though but still good enough).  Today's upward move came with significantly higher volume, which was a healthy sign for the bulls.  Today's candlestick left a gap unfilled between day low and prior close.  It would not get filled at least for 2 weeks.  Tomorrow we most likely will have a breakout day, moving toward the near term target of this bull run: 06/19/2012 and 1374.  If the wave-2 is a complex correction (abc mode), we will have a good opportunity to buy dip tomorrow.  (Note that this scenario will become invalid if the market falls below the head - 06/04/2012's low).

Irene2011

回复 snowrider 的帖子

Thanks. waiting for the breakout.

oldpigwang

Bought dip.

时时是好时

oldpigwang 发表于 2012-6-15 10:35
Bought dip.

今天周五，又是OE日，多半是小涨跌的盘面。也给我们一个调整仓位的机会。

luckystar

In the past few days, SPY is slightly higher than SPX (0.5 points?). Today, they are even. Anyone knows the reason?

时时是好时

luckystar 发表于 2012-6-15 11:52
In the past few days, SPY is slightly higher than SPX (0.5 points?). Today, they are even. Anyone kn ...

SPY gives dividend today!!

Irene2011

Snowrider, does it count as break out?

bucks

what a boring day so far...

bucks

Irene2011

回复 bucks 的帖子

It's testing day high again.

snowrider

Irene2011 发表于 2012-6-15 12:02
Snowrider, does it count as break out?

No.  It has been weak today.

Irene2011

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It already had  higher high, how high should it be as a breakout? thx.

snowrider

Irene2011 发表于 2012-6-15 12:16
回复 snowrider 的帖子

It already had  higher high, how high should it be as a breakout? thx.

If there is no 長紅, at least I want to see a 中紅 收盤 ... in order to make it strong enough.

Irene2011

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IC. Let's cross our fingers.

时时是好时

雪大，今天TLT和股市大盘都涨，比较少见。对我们的组合当然是最好的情况。一般债市和股市是反方向的，似乎表明很多人相信股市还会跌？

另外，如果说持债表示看空的话，我们现在是主要做多。那现在的profile 有长期仓75%TLT。 剩下只有25%SPY加上中期仓乘三（中期仓是三倍ETF）在资金上有没有超过TLT呢？这样比较当然比较粗糙，不过我是想了解一下雪大在仓位分配上的一些想法。

谢谢！！！

snowrider

时时是好时 发表于 2012-6-15 13:14
雪大，今天TLT和股市大盘都涨，比较少见。对我们的组合当然是最好的情况。一般债市和股市是反方向的，似乎表 ...

因為這牽涉到你大部隊有多少%的  及小部隊有多少%的 allocation.  以及每個人對於風險願意的承受都不同.  記得曾經有一篇討論過這方面的問題  並且大部隊的長線倉所判斷依據 和小部隊的中期倉所判斷的依據是不同的  因為偶堅持的輕鬆原則就是 keep it simple and stupid ... 所以偶從來不曾頭痛過哪個倉過多哪個倉過少 ... 簡言之 該進就進該出就出 ... 那就輕鬆了!

时时是好时

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-15 14:36
因為這牽涉到你大部隊有多少%的  及小部隊有多少%的 allocation.  以及每個人對於風險願意的承受都不同 ...

噢，知道了。原来是把长期和中期仓位分开处理。我还想着既然做多，那多仓一定是要多于75%TLT的。

那雪大今天可有什么调整计划？

snowrider

时时是好时 发表于 2012-6-15 13:44
噢，知道了。原来是把长期和中期仓位分开处理。我还想着既然做多，那多仓一定是要多于75%TLT的。

那雪 ...

可能有 ... 可能會賣掉一些 TLT ... 但是偶們要看尾盤來決定 因為到底會收哪裡偶們還不知道 (雖然 so far so good)

Irene2011

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-15 11:47
可能有 ... 可能會賣掉一些 TLT ... 但是偶們要看尾盤來決定 因為到底會收哪裡偶們還不知道 (雖然 so far ...

If you sell TLT, are you going to buy spy?

时时是好时

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-15 14:47
可能有 ... 可能會賣掉一些 TLT ... 但是偶們要看尾盤來決定 因為到底會收哪裡偶們還不知道 (雖然 so far ...

明白了。继续关注。。。