GDP miss 是下跌催化剂

Diffusion

今天的GDP报告大家可以关注一下。虽然消费和制造都有增长，但是因为国防预算削减，导致GDP drop 0.1%。也就是说虽然经济在缓慢好转，但是仍然非常脆弱，以至于无法弥补财政紧缩带来的衰退。虽然debt ceiling被拖延到了5/19，但是二月底的自动削减预算并没有被推迟。有分析指，自动削减预算将导致GDP下滑2%，也就是在可以预见的将来，美国经济会被财政紧缩拖累，走入衰退。所以今天清空了长线多仓。

未来一段时间，预计小型股会领跌，因为美国经济不好，而小型股是美国经济的晴雨表。大公司还有国际收入，表现会相对好些。美元看跌，金子看涨，美国原油看跌。

源济

Newbull

xiaochong

怎么看小型股领跌？ IWM？

开小差

Diffusion

xiaochong 发表于 2013-1-30 12:56 PM
怎么看小型股领跌？ IWM？

en, 我排个序，IWM < QQQ < SPY < DIA

newyorker

iwm has n't dropped more than 1 point for a month.  

开小差

D哥，哪儿可以看GDP报告分析？

Diffusion

开小差 发表于 2013-1-30 01:10 PM
D哥，哪儿可以看GDP报告分析？

http://blogs.barrons.com/focuson ... e-after-crummy-gdp/

Get inside the report and you’ll see it’s not all bad news. A 1.3% slump in government expenditures, international trade and a decline in inventory were important factors. Consumption actually gained by 1.5%, Miller Tabak strategist Andrew Wilkinson notes this morning. The consumption figure especially is interesting. “This is the biggest clue to counter accusations that the economy is slowing down,” Wilkinson writes. He expects upward revisions for both inventory and trade next time around.

The headline report showed Real US GDP to have shrunk by -0.1% compared to expected growth of 1.1%. However, the shadow of the Fiscal Cliff loomed over the data with total Federal spending dropping -6.6% on an annualized basis and the sub-category of Defense being slashed by -22.2%. Much as we would love to have turned the corner on the bloated Federal expenditure Q4 clearly saw some accounting shenanigans which presumably created some space for the Treasury to operate in the event that the Fiscal Cliff and/or Debt Ceiling came into effect. We would expect these measures to be reversed either in Q1 or Q2 2013, with a corresponding boost to the data.

Diffusion

newyorker 发表于 2013-1-30 01:10 PM
iwm has n't dropped more than 1 point for a month.

过去没有，将来可能有，炒股要看将来。我说了不算，市场最大。

NZX

buy dia, short iwm

Diffusion

NZX 发表于 2013-1-30 01:32 PM
buy dia, short iwm

that's a good strategy

learner2009

DCE

小呵呵

milan1126

老大形势看的真准~

Diffusion

milan1126 发表于 2013-2-5 04:47 PM
老大形势看的真准~

准吗？我都快被烧死了。。。

milan1126

Diffusion 发表于 2013-2-5 04:49 PM
准吗？我都快被烧死了。。。

虚火，蹦跶不了多久了~

Diffusion

milan1126 发表于 2013-2-5 04:57 PM
虚火，蹦跶不了多久了~