本季ER被低估(from Barron's)

Diffusion

The Ever-Lower Estimates for Q4 Earnings
By Sam Mamudi
Here’s a fun fact for those who wish to follow such things — Wall Street analysts’ estimates for the earnings season that just kicked off are likely too low, says Spencer Jakab.

The typical pattern in an economic expansion is for nearly two-thirds of companies to “surprise” on the upside on earnings while just a fifth disappoint. Companies do that by guiding analysts’ estimates low enough that they are easy to hurdle by earnings-season time.

The consensus view for fourth quarter earnings for the Standard & Poor’s 500 companies is 2.7% growth over the prior year, writes Jakab. That’s gloomier than the 10% growth they expected back in October, and the outlook was even higher in April.

Ebullient analyst forecasts routinely succumb to reality and then go too low. The average underestimation for earnings seasons going back to the start of 2010 has been 3.5 percentage points. If that pattern holds, then earnings growth this quarter may actually come in at 6.2%.

That’s good news, of course, and something to look forward to, but it’s also instructive — be careful of taking any earnings estimates too seriously.

NZX

ctcld

当时惘然

ctcld

我那天说本ER有惊喜，今天的AA就开了个好头。

很可惜，没人反问我怎么胡诌的。。

Diffusion

ctcld 发表于 2013-1-9 11:47 PM
我那天说本ER有惊喜，今天的AA就开了个好头。

很可惜，没人反问我怎么胡诌的。。

你看到的报告肯定比我们早个几天啦～～～～～

问你的话你能说来源吗？

ctcld

Diffusion 发表于 2013-1-9 10:53 PM
你看到的报告肯定比我们早个几天啦～～～～～

问你的话你能说来源吗？

我是根据Q4的宏观数据明显改善，而估值在Q3时又被调低的情况下，这就让我有机会胡诌了一把。对不对，请检验。

我们公司的报告还没出来。不过我发现管理的资产在增值，而流动资金在减少，这说明投资意向比较正面。而且根本就不CARE悬崖。但我有一感觉：等到多数BEAT后，一阵市场狂热中，MM定会再放妖蛾子，但绝不是2月底的天花板。

Diffusion

ctcld 发表于 2013-1-10 12:07 AM
我是根据Q4的宏观数据明显改善，而估值在Q3时又被调低的情况下，这就让我有机会胡诌了一把。对不对， ...

这样就要赞一个了。我还以为是有内线报告。。。

debt ceiling我到不是很担心，MM借机偷袭肯定会有，不过已经发生过的事件，威力就要小很多。就好象欧债，年年提，影响越来越小。。。

dsp

ctcld 发表于 2013-1-10 12:07 AM
我是根据Q4的宏观数据明显改善，而估值在Q3时又被调低的情况下，这就让我有机会胡诌了一把。对不对， ...

when is 天花板?

Thanks.