从经济周期看，熊来了(from Barron's)

Diffusion

要点：

According to a forecasting model developed by Michael Belkin, whose Belkin Report is read by institutional players and hedge funds, the U.S. economy will soon tip into recession. That has been a surefire indicator for stock pullbacks for more than 100 years.

Belkin's model uses data from the Dow Jones Industrial Average because it dates to the October 1902 recession. Since then, the average decline for stocks during a contraction has been 30.6%, in an average period of 14 months. That would put the S&P 500 under 1000. Belkin, who called inflection points in November 2002, November 2007, and April 2009, suggests a defensive, if not short, equity position, with technology names especially at risk. Or go completely to cash.

原文就不贴了，这两段就足够了。

austinjoe

I just ZT 3 pics -- the 2012crash.png match 缠论's reading on the monthly chart. We are in the 背驰段 on Monthly, Weekly and Daily chart. SPX just ended it's 30F 上涨趋势 and started a new 30F走势 heading south. It's very interesting to see how SPX grow itself to make the 565 hit.

Bencat

Do you believe it?   

heheboy

奶奶个熊的，又吓俺们青蛙。。。

老大，你啥看法？丢垃圾桶？还是秘籍使用？

Diffusion

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-14 12:55 AM
I just ZT 3 pics -- the 2012crash.png match 缠论's reading on the monthly char ...

565，有想象力。不过也难说，因为baby boomer就要大批退休了，they will sell asset and draw cash, which will press down P/E. If we see a 3-5 year bear market, or a 20 year one such as what witnessed by Japan, then 565 may be only a pause.

Diffusion

Bencat 发表于 2012-10-14 12:56 AM
Do you believe it?

Yes, why not. See this guy's track record.

Diffusion

heheboy 发表于 2012-10-14 01:01 AM
奶奶个熊的，又吓俺们青蛙。。。

老大，你啥看法？丢垃圾桶？还是秘籍使用？

做短线不用理这些。做长线就更不用着急了，破了50MA再跑，或者等回测50MA失败再跑也不迟。我贴出来就是给大家提个醒。老手喜欢回调buy dip，所以大熊市来的时候，套在顶上的人不多，大部队都是套在半山腰的。

90ufo

他TENTATIVE call sep14 top.  注意这"tentative", 他以前的perfect track record 说不顶是试验+调节出来的 :)

mike Santoli 已经2期没写street wise 了. 我还等他的mysterious broker update呢.   你应该记得QUOTE那个人说"punctuated by 5-10% correction", 我还和你讨论过"punctuate"什么意思, 大选前跌, 还是大选后跌.
1475 -5% = 1400
1475 - 10% = 1328

Diffusion

90ufo 发表于 2012-10-14 06:27 PM
他TENTATIVE call sep14 top.  注意这"tentative", 他以前的perfect track record 说不顶是试验+调节出来的 ...

"tentative"这个问题不大。长线，尤其得跨年的波段的顶和底，也没可能精确到天。他以前的call也都是说某年某月。

Santoli我也很喜欢，不过就算是他来写，他提到那个broker的频率大概也是半年一次，估计这次等不到了...

silicon_beaver

Still waiting for election rally.  

Diffusion

silicon_beaver 发表于 2012-10-14 06:51 PM
Still waiting for election rally.

短线看这里上下皆可，就看谁运气好了。