QE3, TIF, and RAX

Diffusion

结论：
1. 没有QE3
2. 长线考虑买入TIF
3. RAX短线DT，long only

周末Barron's有一篇文章说，从历史上看，失业率数字(8.1%)是比较稳定的，而新增就业人数和待业人数这些数字却是不稳定的。所以周三Fed做决定的时候，可能会更看重8.1%(which means improvement)，而媒体有过分解释新增就业人数和待业人数的嫌疑。另外SeekingAlpha上有篇文章，罗列了更多的数据，也是相同的结论。

另外周末中国宏观经济数据出路，Bloomberg的解读比较悲观，China's Dilemma: Output Gains Slow, Yet Inflation Rises。把这两条放在一起看，有可能从周一开始回调，到周三借没有QE3的机会制造panic，然后周四开始反弹。周三收盘或者周四开盘可能是最好的抄底机会。

更正一下，Fed周四announcement.

不过还是要强调一下：trade what you see, not what you think.




上周经济数据中引起我注意的是ISM的数据。制造业不好而服务业好。更妙的是两者相加的总体结果是好的。美国服务业占GDP比重2/3还多，因此美国经济目前应该是处在被服务业支撑的缓慢复苏状态。那么最受益的应该是consumer discretionary板块。

无独有偶，SeekingAlpha上的另外一篇文章也印证了这个观点。该文章作者在long TIF，属于consumer discretionary板块中的高端企业。看了下图，处在上升通道，下面有均线和趋势线支持，可以考虑长期持有。



上周INTC pre-announce ER，提到很多不利因素，唯独cloud computing这块业务还很稳定。在云计算概念中，我最近比较看好MLNX和RAX，都是成长型的股票。不过现在我对MLNX有所保留，一是MLNX上周五遭抛售，技术形态被破坏，而是MLNX我觉得是属于manufacture，如果象INTC的预警中所说的那样，整个semi都可能会被波及，那么MLNX也会受影响。而RAX是service provider，就没有这方面的担心。图上看，已经涨的很高了，但是momo很强，因此适合DT，低买高卖，long only。我会沿下面这条短期趋势线操作。

bucks

suanc2008

不猜了, 没意义了. 还有4天就全清楚了.

bucks

The news will be released on Thursday. So i guess a pullback soemtime in first3 days or just consolidating, and then climbing high to wait for QE3 decision. Only God knows to go damoon or hell then

bucks

suanc2008 发表于 2012-9-9 02:37 PM
不猜了, 没意义了. 还有4天就全清楚了.

就是， 今年最大的长进就是对消息不那么敏感了，远远超出我能理解的，不费那神了

llyynnW

Diffusion

bucks 发表于 2012-9-9 02:42 PM
The news will be released on Thursday. So i guess a pullback soemtime in first3 days or just consoli ...

oh, yeah, Fed announcement will be on Thurs. thx.

dsp

agree on NO QE3.

源济

bingtian

礼拜五BUY DIP了INTC 和 BIDU。。。。各位老大请给个建议吧，是拿着还是礼拜一赶紧卖了，大牛市手里没股票着急呀
多谢了

Diffusion

bingtian 发表于 2012-9-9 05:12 PM
礼拜五BUY DIP了INTC 和 BIDU。。。。各位老大请给个建议吧，是拿着还是礼拜一赶紧卖了，大牛市手里没股票着 ...

INTC不太看好。BIDU不熟悉，不过图上看还好，感觉不破107.5问题不大。

开小差

bingtian

多谢大哥

Diffusion

bingtian 发表于 2012-9-9 07:12 PM
多谢大哥

主意还是要自己拿。你听了我的亏了钱，我只有胡币给你。

bingtian

无压力哦亲

rightonmoney

分析得真棒！一颗红心，两手准备。

棋王

非常好的图和分析，赞一个。。。

livein

learner2009

Laoda, some questions for you:

1. right now market price in QE or no QE?
2. will the market drop if no QE?
3. I agree there'll be no QE, but is it needed now? The recent rally may be caused by the stimulus plans of China and ECB. I don't think QE will matter now. But Ben has the ball, and all he needs to do is just talk and market will go as he expects. What do you think?
4. how many market-related papers do you read every day? Admire your FA.

Diffusion

learner2009 发表于 2012-9-9 11:48 PM
Laoda, some questions for you:

1. right now market price in QE or no QE?

1. Some says the market fully priced in QE3 and probably more
2. I think so. But some says it's a good dip to buy
3. You can refer to The mystery of Jackson Hole (from Economist). Economists are still scratching their heads for this, so I have no opinion. All I know is with QE3, asset price will bubble up.
4. This weekend I spent more time on reading because my short position was trapped. Otherwise I wouldn't bother.