SPX 2016-01-09

austinjoe

As chart shows, from Nov 16 -- Dec 29, 2015, SPX form a Day zone 1993.2 [2041.9, 2082.9] 2104.3. Purple box on chart.

Blue number 1 -- 17 are 1F 走势, using 2 -- 11 SPX form a 30F  zone 1993.2 [2041.9, 2077.4] 2091.8 -- not show on chart.

while 1F 走势 6 -- 15 would build another 30F zone  1993.2 [2003.9, 2068.5] 2082.9, which is green box on the chart.

The 30F zone 2070.29 [2084.13, 2093.81] 2097.06  build up from Nov 20 -- Nov 30, 2015 stopped BULL three 5F level up move try, 4/5/6/7, 8/9/10/11, and 12/13/14/15. Then BEAR made a decisive break down on 2040 via 2% gap down on the first trading day of 2016, now it's on 1F  2 zone down trend start from blue 17. BULL had a chance to bounce up from 2030 just 1 hour before close Friday via 1F 趋势背驰, but bull waste the chance instead close near LOD 1922.

The closest 5F zone built by 中枢扩张 is red box -- 1979.2 [1988.2, 2003.2] 2023.2, while 1F zone is yellow circle 1938.7 [1953.4, 1961.0] 1976.9. Note that last week SPX is within a falling edge after it drop 90 points from Monday morning.

For Bear to void 1F 趋势背驰, it must gap down or drop quickly bellow 1900 next Monday morning to form the 3rd 1F zone bellow. The support for it to break down are 1916, 1893, 1872, 1867, 1834. Mind that 1880 -- 1920 are thin area and not much trading volume within these 40 points.

For Bull to turn up, it has to rise above 2050 and retrace test not bellow it to start a 1F 走势 up, since there is no 5F盘整背驰 and 30F盘整背驰 here, bull has to grow its level 1 by 1 to take out the up resist -- 1988, 2003, 2041.


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源济

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Jeff

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捷思

橘子皮

austinjoe

BEAR lost its strength and could not score today. The morning gap up coupled with mid-day bounce up formed 3rd 1F 中枢, and this 3 zone 1F down trend 趋势背驰 triggered SPX bounce up from 1901 and break out the bullish falling wedge. The rise from SPX 1901 is only an unfinished 1F 线段 till EOD today. If gap up tomorrow, then this 1F 线段 will keep grow. We will have minimum 3 1F 线段 for this bounce up.

IMO, SPX bounce up target 1988.2 -- blue 16 point. If SPX could not hit it and turn down, then it would be 3rd sell on 5F zone 1979.2 [1988.2, 2003.2] 2023.2, and next down move will test 09/2015 low.

Min requirement for BULL is to make a 3rd buy above 1927 tomorrow to keep bounce up momentum.

austinjoe

01-12-2016: SPX gap up but could not make a 3rd buy on yesterday 1F 中枢. It drop down to 1920.8, then next 1F up 线段 stops at 1932.3, followed by another 1F down 线段 ends at 1914.3. These 3 1F线段 formed a new 1F 中枢 1914.3 [ 1920.8, 1932.3] 1947.7 for this bounce up. The last 1F 线段 up move has not ended by market close, but already show sign of 1F 盘整背驰. SPX must gap up above 1958 tomorrow to void it and the retreat test needs to above 1932.3 to keep this dead cat bounce alive.

Late 01-08-2015 till middle of 01-12-2015 could form a new 5F 中枢 1901 [1913.4, 1926.5] 1947.7, keep an eye on its 3rd buy/sell via 1F 走势 in the following days.

austinjoe

01-13-2016: SPX down by 7 1F 线段 without forming a 1F zone. Drop from 1951 -> 1931.7 -> 1940.7 -> 1925.0 -> 1929.5 -> 1886.2 -> 1903.2 -> close 1890.28 has not end the 7th 1F 线段 yet. Last hour bounce local top 1903.2 is 3rd sell and ends the life of 1F 中枢 1914.3 [ 1920.8, 1932.3] 1947.7 formed yesterday.

Note that the 5th 1F 线段 SPX dropped 43 points and this would be the check mark for Bear tomorrow. IF 7 weaker than 5, then 6/7/8 could form a 1F zone and next 9th 1f down 线段 would have to > 5 to keep BEAR momentum.

austinjoe

01-14-2016: SPX gap up @ 1899.5 ends 7th 1F 线段, the next down 1F 线段 stopped at 1878.2 which is far weaker than 5th 43 points drop. A powerful short squeeze in next 45 min bring SPX up 40 points to 1918.7. Hence a new 1F 中枢  [ 1887.5, 1899.5] is formed, the SPX retreat test it successfully on 1902.5 and turned up again. This is 3rd buy for 1F zone, and I opened long SPX 1905.

SPX rise to 1919.7 and made another shallow 1F down 线段 and stopped at 1912.3 which formed new 1F 中枢 again 1902.5 [ 1912.3, 1918.7] 1919.7. SPX hit HOD 1934.8 followed by a big drop back close at 1921.8, this last 1F 线段 (with lowest 1918.8 just above 1F zone) has not finished yet.

Bull needs to keep rise from tomorrow opening and not touch 1918.7 to make a 3rd buy on 1F zone to continue this extreme oversold bounce up move. Otherwise both 5F盘整背驰 -- the down from 1951 to 1878 is stronger than the current bounce up; and 1F 1F 中枢 [ 1912.3, 1918.7] 盘整背驰 will end the life of deadcat bounce, Bear need to drop bellow 1912 and make a 3rd sell to confirm.

Market swing around 5F 中枢 1901 [1913.4, 1926.5] 1947.7 on 1F 走势 in the next 2-3 days until a 3rd buy / sell show up, OR this 5F 中枢 grow 1 level up to 30F, which would be same as rise from 2015 Sept/Oct low to Nov high.

austinjoe

SPX needs to rise to 2040 by 12:00PM EST to void 1F 盘整背驰 and hit 2152 by 2:00PM EST to void 5F 盘整背驰. It's the same set up as Wednesday except Tues night ES is up while now ES is down. Tomorrow would be very interesting one. My wild guess is Sept low would be break, then bounce up and next down to break Aug low -- DO NOT use this as your invest base YMYD.