10/22/2010 大盘回顾 （Red Week the Next Week?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 3 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up. I hold both long and short over the weekend. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 10/26 10/22 : 10/23 Next pivot date: 10/21 – 10/22, 10/25 – 10/27, 11/04

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/05 Market Recap: 16 more trading days upswing? BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 20 unfilled gaps, the max was 20. 10/15 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish. 10/15 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 10/08 Market Recap: Up off-season usually means down earning season. 10/15 Market Recap: Institutions are selling into strength. 10/19 Market Recap: AAPL is way too stretched. 10/15 Market Recap: Euro may retreat which may cause US$ carry trade unwind. 6.4.2c Extreme TICK Readings Watch: TICK too low, lower low or lower close ahead? 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE trend line breakout, topped? 6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch: New high on negative NYMO readings, topped? *4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): NYSI STO(5,3,3) sell signal.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 09/24 L *10/12 Low *Adjust stop loss.

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE RED WEEK THE NEXT WEEK

 

下周可能收红，理由是SPX and NDX的weekly %B too high with negative divergence and WLSH up 8 weeks in a row。这些理由都比较牵强，但是考虑到下周seasonality对牛牛不利(see seasonality session below)，因此下周收红的可能性还是大些。

 

 

Wilshire 5000 Index up 8 weeks in row，下面的图是该index有史以来up 7 weeks in a row的所有记录，也是说下周可能收红。

 

 

0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals，这个follow up一下，我认为trend line still held the breakout，因此这个top signal依然有效。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED, PIVOT DATE EITHER AROUND 10/22 OR 10/26 OR 11/04

 

维持the intermediate-term bearish view，本周又多了个理由，就是NYSI Weekly STO(5, 3,3) sell signal，从下面的图看，至少后面会比较choppy。

 

 

下面的图，我更多的是想引起大家注意，并非bearish的理由。Again，a bearish expectation doesn’t equal to a short position as you can see my positions in the table above，这里面有个risk reward的问题，并非我这个报告应该讨论的范围，基本上，在market不断higher high的情况下，做熊是一件高风险的事情，beware。

 

4.0.7 Collection of Leading Indicators I，too much negative divergence，特别是defensive sector XLV and XLP持续outperform SPX，表明资金risk aversion。

 

 

其他理由，see summary below，本周报告不打算把所有的图都重新列一下了，因为变化不大。其中最值得注意的是Institutional Selling Action from stocktiming，非常明显，机构一直在selling into strength。

 

 

Maintain the intermediate-term bearish view, the pivot date could be either around 10/22 or 10/26 or 11/04, see 10/15 Market Recap for more details. Below are summaries of all the arguments supporting my intermediate-term bearish view:

1. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
2. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average) is way too bullish.
3. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, institution selling keeps increasing.
4. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season could mean a weaker earning season.
5. As mentioned in 10/11 Market Recap, statistically VIX at 1 month low going into October was not a good sign.
6. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, US$ may rebound which is not good for the broad market.
7. As mentioned in 10/19 Market Recap, AAPL MACD is now too stretched which could mean a top for QQQQ.

SEASONALITY: LAST TRADING WEEK AND LAST 2 TRADING DAYS OF EACH MONTH SINCE AUG 2009 WERE BEARISH

 

6.5.2c Week Seasonality Watch.

 

 

6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch.

 

 

For October Seasonality chart please refer to 10/01 Market Recap.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

1. The market appears a little stretched as lots of ETFs weekly %B are way too high.
2. With possible Euro pullback, watch potential weakness on commodity related ETFs like XLE, XLB and XIU.TO.
3. Financials and home builders are lagging, so how far can IYR (realty) go?

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ	*UP
NDX Weekly		NDX to SPX ratio too high. %B too high with negative divergence.
IWM	*UP
IWM Weekly		%B too high with negative divergence.
CHINA		Rejected by downtrend line, watch…
CHINA Weekly		Extremely high %B.
EEM	*LA	*Double black bar, pullback?
EEM Weekly		EEM to SPX ratio too high.
XIU.TO	LA	TOADV MA(10) too high.
XIU.TO Weekly		Fib 61.8% .
TLT	*LA	1-2-3 trend change to be confirmed, TLT could start an intermediate-term downtrend.
TLT Weekly		*Rebounded from %B mid line.
FXE	LA	*Bearish reversal bar plus black bar, combining with weekly chart, so pullback?
FXE Weekly		Stalled at Fib confluences area, %B too high with negative divergence, too high above MA(40).
GLD	DOWN
GLD Weekly
GDX	*LA	On support, BPGDM sell signal though.
GDX Weekly
USO	*UP
WTIC Weekly
XLE	*UP	Bearish reversal bar plus Spinning Top, combining with weekly chart, so pullback?
XLE Weekly		%B too high with negative divergence.
XLF	LA
XLF Weekly		Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
IYR	UP	*Bearish reversal bar plus black bar, pullback?
IYR Weekly		Home builders are lagging.
XLB	*LA
XLB Weekly		%B too high with negative divergence.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore offer no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list; UP/DOWN = Short-term trend; L A = Lateral Trend

Poo

Poo

Poo

Poo

1,2,3? ha ha

Poo

thanks la da

Poo

what happened? taken off and put back up again? I thought my 五把交椅给老蛇收走了。

cogitoepk

thanks la da
Poo 发表于 2010-10-24 13:20

坏笑，而后躺倒大笑，啥意思？

Poo

坏笑，而后躺倒大笑，啥意思？
cogitoepk 发表于 2010-10-24 13:26

没有啊。
只是为了占个座

Cobra

what happened? taken off and put back up again? I thought my 五把交椅给老蛇收走了。
Poo 发表于 2010-10-24 13:25

    因为忽然觉得WLSH应该放在短期看熊下周的理由里面，而不是中期看熊的理由，所以要调整一下。

Diver

zhongyu dengdaole.

...
Cobra 发表于 2010-10-24 13:18

oldfox

nokia

Poo

因为忽然觉得WLSH应该放在短期看熊下周的理由里面，而不是中期看熊的理由，所以要调整一下。
Cobra 发表于 2010-10-24 13:29

李隆基

IMeMyself

thanks

skipjack

Thanks

quickcow

thanks!

trueself

greenback