10/11/2010 大盘回顾 （VIX to VXV Ratio Hit Record Low）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 3 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up, I hold partial long position over night as the mini price target hasn’t met not because it’s safe to do so. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 10/10-10/11 10/07 : 10/08 10/11 Next pivot date: 10/05 – 10/11

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/05 Market Recap: 16 more trading days upswing? See 10/07 Market Recap, I have doubt now. 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: mini SPX target 1173. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 19 unfilled gaps, the max is 19. 09/23 Market Recap: SPX down 3 days means 79% chances to close below 09/23 close in 10 days.  Failed! 09/27 Market Recap: AAPL is now too stretched. 10/08 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish. 10/08 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 6.3.1b Major Accumulation Day Watch: 2 consecutive down days after MAD was a bad sign. 6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish Reversal Day, pullback? 10/08 Market Recap: Up off-season usually means down earning season. 10/08 Market Recap: Institutions are selling into strength. 6.1.9a Extreme ISEE Index Readings Watch: SPX will close below 1165 within 2 days? *6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Record low.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 09/24 L Breakeven

 

SHORT-TERM: BEARISH BIASED

 

今天的story只有一个，就是VIX:VXV创了历史最低纪录了，翻译成SPX price，就是说三个月后的SPX price要比现在低很多。当然，如下图，也有一种可能性就是现在是mirror 2008年10月的情形（既然自然界有对称的倾向性），因此VIX:VXV will go extremely extremely low，翻译成SPX price，就是很快就有会SPX all time high，可能SPX 2000都不是问题。Well, which way will it be，自己判断啦，在这种YES WE CAN的年代，没有点想象力是不行的。

 

 

Personally，我只能告诉你历史是怎么走的，从下面的图看，最近VIX:VXV非常低的时候，好像此后都不怎么牛牛友好。

 

 

下面的统计来自sentimentrader，也是说就历史而言，VIX目前这么低，对牛牛不是好事情。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED

 

Maintain the intermediate-term bearish view. Below are summaries of all the arguments I’ve been blah blah recently:

1. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
2. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average) is way too bullish.
3. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, institution selling keeps increasing.
4. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season could mean a weaker earning season.

SEASONALITY: OCTOBER EXPIRATION MONAY WAS BULLISH, EXPIRATION DAY WAS BEARISH

 

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday before October expiration, Dow up 24 of 29.
2. October expiration day, Dow down 4 straight and 5 of last 6.

For October Seasonality chart please refer to 10/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ	UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM	UP
CHINA		Confirmed breakout, very bullish.
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
CANADA	UP	TOADV MA(10) too high and has negative divergence.
BOND	DOWN
EURO	*LA
GOLD	UP
GDX	UP	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high. 3.2.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Daily): Bearish Engulfing, pullback?
OIL	*DOWN
ENERGY	UP
FINANCIALS	UP	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging.
MATERIALS	UP	*Bearish Reversal Bar, pullback?

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update.
4. Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. LA = Lateral Trend.

houston

福多多

Poo

atrader

thanks

X中国陆军

like2swing

thanks

ut1984

Jeff

thanks

soulvirus

oda

colderdown

SPX 2000? Gold will be $4000 then.

bokchoy888

lanz

windy

thanks

wnd4

thanks

NewMember

Thank you!

t-k

NewMember

问一下班长：
今天交易量非常小，对VIX:VXV值的可靠性是否会有影响？

妞妞

哇, SPX如果到2000, 疯了, 这市场.