09/30/2010 大盘回顾 （Watch SPX 1136）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is SELL, not confirmed though. 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is down, not confirmed thought. I hold short position overnight because the mini price target hasn’t met, not because it’s safe to hold overnight. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 10/10-10/11 10/07 : 10/08 Week of 09/24, 09/28 Next pivot date: 09/28 – 10/01, 10/08 – 10/11

BULLISH 09/17 Market Recap: Down 3 weeks then up 3 weeks, the 8th and 9th week is statistically bullish. 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means huge up in 3 months. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 18 unfilled gaps, the max was 18. 09/23 Market Recap: AAII is way too bullish. 09/23 Market Recap: SPX 3 consecutive down days means more pullback? 6.1.9a Extreme ISEE Index Readings Watch: ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index > 100, pullback? 6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch and 6.5.2c Week Seasonality Watch: Bearish this week. *6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish at least short-term? 09/27 Market Recap: AAPL is now too stretched.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 09/24 L 1.9*ATR(10)

 

SHORT-TERM: BEARISH, BUT SPX NEED TO BREAKDOWN BELOW 1136 TO CONFIRM THE DOWNTREND

 

The bottom line，牛牛形式不乐观：

 

1. 今天SPY又整了个Bearish Reversal (Open high, goes higher high but closes in red)，这是在4天里的第二个Bearish Reversal且是4 reversal like bars in a row。

 

 

2. 可能形成了典型的A = C in terms both price and trading days，且在理论上极可能发生trend change的time window里，因此在这里发生反转的话，是符合逻辑的。

 

 

当然，downtrend not confirmed yet。明天是关键的一天，如果熊熊能一举把牛牛推下SPX 1136，那么就是1-2-3 Trend Change pattern, short-term downtrend confirmed, I expect at least 2 leg down thereafter。现在对熊熊来说，唯一的变数就是不确定今天的back test是否已经enough，还是说要再去测试今天的high 1157一下。对牛牛来说则首先必须守住1136，而只有decisively breakout above 1157才能resume bullish uptrend。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH, BUT NEED SOME IMAGINATION TO FORESEE HOW BULLISH

See 09/27 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: LAST TRADING WEEK OF MONTH WAS GENERALLY BEARISH

See 09/24 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ	LA	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM	UP	*Bearish reversal bar, pullback?
CHINA
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high. *1.4.1 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Daily): Black bar, pullback?
CANADA	UP	TOADV MA(10) too high, pullback? *Black bar, pullback?
BOND	LA	4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Morning Doji Star?
EURO	UP	*Black bar, pullback?
GOLD	UP	*Hanging Man?
GDX	*LA	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL	UP	*Breakout, bullish.
ENERGY	UP	*Black bar, pullback?
FINANCIALS	DOWN	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	DOWN	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging.
MATERIALS	DOWN

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update.
4. Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. LA = Lateral Trend.

nanosensor

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thomast

SF
Thank you, Cobra.

nanosensor

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