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发表于 2010-9-20 07:42 PM
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That's based on T Theory from Terrence Laundry. There are many variations to it, using not only simply S&P prices, but also Cumulative NYSE Advance Decline line (referred to as Mega T's), McCellan oscillator on net volume, NYSE Advance Decline Oscillator (referred to as short range T's). The problem with T Theory IMHO is that you can always draw a new T given a specific price action. T Theory called for a top on Aug 26th based on expiry of both Mega T as well as short range T's and instead we found a bottom around that date. It was gotten around by simply drawing another short range T despite that the theory calls for Mega T to override all short term T's.
If you take your chart and goes back further in history, you will find there symmetries that appear to exist over the last few months disappear. For example, the extended rally from Feb to Apr was neither proceeded nor followed by a two and half month decline. |
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