08/25/2010 大盘回顾（Head and Shoulders Bottom in the Forming?）

Cobra · 发表于 2010-8-25 06:28 PM

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	2 of 2 are SELL
Intermediate	3 of 3 are SELL	5 of 5 are NEUTRAL	SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term	Model is SELL	5 of 5 are NEUTRAL	Trend is down, I hold tiny short position overnight.
GANN DAY	MOON/SOLAR	CYCLE	CONCLUSION
8/26, 9/10	08/24 / 08/23	8/23	Next pivot date: 08/23 – 08/26

BULLISH
BEARISH	0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: the 3rd Hindenburg Omen triggered. *T2105 too high.

SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	STOP LOSS	INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop	08/16 S	N/A	For general direction guide only.
ST Model			*Cover short entered on 08/23 at close today.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICS ARE BEARISH

See 08/20 Market Recap and 08/24 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: HEAD AND SHOULDERS BOTTOM IN THE FORMING?

今天没啥好说的，08/24 Market Recap里分析了08/26(+-)很可能是pivot date，也指出出了如果SPX在这个pivot date附近，pullback to 1040的话，那么很有可能形成Head and Shoulders Bottom。这一切是exactly what happened today，SPX在1040附近受到支持，反弹形成bullish reversal bar，看着不错。那么，这是不是意味着market has bottomed？我只能说可能，看明天有没有follow through吧。

0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily)，VIX连整两个reversal bar，看起来pullback的几率很大，这个也是说market可能bottom了。其他还有很多看起来像reversal bar的图，这里就不一一举例了。

SPY ST Model Cover Short Signal，如果看了的话，就该知道，今天出了蓝色棒棒cover信号。下面的图是最近几年所有蓝色棒棒的情况，可以看到蓝色棒棒虽然不一定是exactly bottom，但是基本上也是离bottom不远了，因此这个信号的可信度还是很高的，暂时也当作又一个bottom的证据吧。

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	DTMFS	COMMENT – New update. Click BLUE* to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	DOWN	SELL
IWM	DOWN
CHINA	UP		Head and Shoulders Bottom in the forming?
EMERGING	*DOWN	SELL	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN	DOWN
CANADA	UP	SELL
BOND	UP		4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Too far away from MA(200).
EURO	DOWN	SELL
GOLD	UP	*BUY
GDX	UP	*BUY	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL	DOWN
ENERGY	DOWN
FINANCIALS	DOWN		4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	DOWN		4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful.
MATERIALS	DOWN	SELL

*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

colderdown · 发表于 2010-8-25 06:29 PM

dreampen · 发表于 2010-8-25 06:30 PM

flash · 发表于 2010-8-25 06:30 PM

safa

Fan8an · 发表于 2010-8-25 06:30 PM

hhli3 · 发表于 2010-8-25 06:32 PM

I was supposed to be the first. But why it keeps asking me to login if I am inactive for a few minutes?

colderdown · 发表于 2010-8-25 06:32 PM

1st page

colderdown · 发表于 2010-8-25 06:32 PM

1st page

colderdown · 发表于 2010-8-25 06:32 PM

1st page

colderdown · 发表于 2010-8-25 06:33 PM

1st page

colderdown · 发表于 2010-8-25 06:33 PM

1st page

oda · 发表于 2010-8-25 06:33 PM

colderdown · 发表于 2010-8-25 06:34 PM

Still 1st page

maomi · 发表于 2010-8-25 06:36 PM

1st page...

lite1067 · 发表于 2010-8-25 06:37 PM

haha... 牛熊都是在一念间

top枪 · 发表于 2010-8-25 06:39 PM

学习

etrade · 发表于 2010-8-25 06:41 PM

回复 1# Cobra

fandy · 发表于 2010-8-25 06:42 PM

thanks

t-k · 发表于 2010-8-25 06:43 PM

slcgh · 发表于 2010-8-25 06:45 PM

1st page?

		自动登录	找回密码
密码			注册

[技术分析] 08/25/2010 大盘回顾（Head and Shoulders Bottom in the Forming?）

评分

[技术分析] 08/25/2010 大盘回顾 （Head and Shoulders Bottom in the Forming?）

评分

[技术分析] 08/25/2010 大盘回顾（Head and Shoulders Bottom in the Forming?）