08/19/2010 大盘回顾 （Rebound May Not Over Yet）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 1 of 2 are SELL   Sell signal to be confirmed. Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term Model is SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Trend is down but I hold no short position overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 8/26 08/24 / 08/23 8/23 Next pivot date: 08/23 – 08/26

BULLISH BEARISH *0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed. T2105 too high. 0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume: too low, still at top? 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI a little high.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 08/16 S N/A For general direction guide only. ST Model 08/17 L 1.9*ATR(10)

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BULLLISH

See 08/13 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED

1. The correction since 04/26 isn’t over. See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.
2. The 07/01 low may be tested. See 08/13 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: REBOUND TARGET 1106 TO 1110, COULD LAST TO 08/23

 

暂时还是maintain the price and time target mentioned in 08/17 Market Recap。今天的下跌并不能说明自08/16 low以来的反弹已经结束了，主要的理由是自04/26以来的反弹，最少都是5 trading day，因此assume这次反弹至少会维持5 trading day也是符合逻辑的。从另一个角度讲，在08/16 low at 1069没破之前，我都还认为反弹没有结束。假如明天market decisively break below 08/16 low，那么牛牛要小心了，因为这将意味着这次反弹的时间甚至不足此前的5 trading day，因此很可能意味着market发生了什么的本质性的改变。

 

 

其他没啥好说的了，0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator，如果按NYSE total active symbol今天收盘时的3108算的话，3108 * 2.2% = 68.73，因此今天的NYLOW at 70已经符合Hindenburg Omen confirmed条件了。Market此后会不会crash，让我们拭目以待吧。

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP
IWM	UP
CHINA	UP
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN	UP
CANADA	UP
BOND	UP
EURO	UP	*6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch: US dollar rebound tomorrow?
GOLD	UP
GDX	UP
OIL	*DOWN
ENERGY	*DOWN
FINANCIALS	*DOWN
REITS	UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful.
MATERIALS	UP

slcgh

nanosensor

Ding

胡同儿串子

先顶后研究！

sexydaytrader

ding, first page?

kkkk

dreampen

c3456

Ding

philles

ding

soulvirus

babyruth

Ding!

happyface

thanks a lot

妞妞

谢谢班长. 如果有反弹最好了, 好给熊熊进场做短期的机会, 不知道历史上有没有记载过"Hindenburg Omen"触发一次就会有效? 因为总觉得有大的Crash在前面等着, 然后才会有一波像样点的反弹.

nokia

ppteam

wk, bounce to 8/23? that's 2 days, let's use 3 days.
to 1100? wow, that's 3 days cover 30 points. if so, the bounce won't be over.

so, the odds is low.

ppteam

plus, since today is MDD, tomorrow most likely is pig day. So 2 days cover 30 points?

tough.

hillcrest

踏实了。谢谢。多保重

lehldk

day day up 2 points

ht2010

多谢多谢!

sooners

回复 1# Cobra