股市诊脉 8-17-2010 by 游击队长 S&P未来30天的走势survey

ypm968

可以选择多项
S&P未来30天的走势survey

Scenario 1: Head & shoulder bottom
4月底开始的correction（17%）已经结束，继续去年3月开始的rally



Scenario 2:  Head & shoulder top
7月初开始的oversold bounce or bear rally已经结束, 这次反弹的目标是1100-1105以建立右肩完成头肩顶。新一波下跌已经开始，继续今年4月底开始的下跌



Scenario 3: Trading range
S&P进入以1010为底1130为顶的trading range

ypm968

Trading strategies
1. Swing trade for DUMMIES - sell short signal triggered on Aug. 11
2. Guerrilla trend channel - sell short signal triggered on Aug. 11

6th-Sense

Trading strategies
1. Swing trade for DUMMIES - sell short signal triggered on Aug. 11
2. Guerrill ...
ypm968 发表于 2010-8-17 19:53

    Master, we are now on a REVERSED channel -- up .

ypm968

Master, we are now on a REVERSED channel -- up .
6th-Sense 发表于 2010-8-17 14:58

Short-term channel is still down

everest001

6th-Sense

Short-term channel is still down
ypm968 发表于 2010-8-17 20:04

    I 95% trust your Scenario 1 -- we are on a uptrend.........zig-zig. and will sell new mkt-high in OCT/NOV.

6th-Sense

I 95% trust your Scenario 1 -- we are on an uptrend.........zig-zig. and will sell new mkt- ...
6th-Sense 发表于 2010-8-17 20:21

anne

No.5 and No.1 they are not same?

Laoda

thx

ypm968

I 95% trust your Scenario 1 -- we are on a uptrend.........zig-zig. and will sell new mkt- ...
6th-Sense 发表于 2010-8-17 15:21

    Earning session is almost over. The only catalyst left is economic data. Unless you believe we will continuous getting good economic data for next two months, I don't think market could rally higher.

windy

thanks

oda

6th-Sense

Earning session is almost over. The only catalyst left is economic data. Unless you believ ...
ypm968 发表于 2010-8-17 21:13

mkt news ahead, very likely.......

1) Small Gap and private sectors will be more easy to get loan from bankers: economic activity will be becoming "more active"
2) Based on 1) hiring will be coming, when well-financially supportive Small Gaps and  private sectors are "activated"....jobs can be much quickly created......we may see a "decreasing" job from months ahead..........
3) EU: Germany, UK, France.....the economic activity much beat, what are other "bad" behind?
4) ASIA: China is now the king.......
...............given my own sense on O8, I am personally 99.99% confident in the mkt: will be higher(even much higher)  than 108/109 in OCT/NOV...................

surely, no mkt will be up straightly.........but I didn't see its down < 100 in the next 3 months........

PS: Your TA work is great, thanks for sharing the view!

cfayahoo

谢谢 6TH SENSE. 你是我知道的6MM 吧, 大牛哦

回复 13# 6th-Sense

sooners

回复 1# ypm968


   

windy

如果此轮反弹出新高（1130以上），那么可能1成立。

如果此轮反弹没能出新高（1120左右），很可能是大三浪的二子浪的b小浪，那么c小浪会指向1057。
1。如果此后从1057反弹，可视为确认三子浪开始。
2。如果下破1057，有可能会是大二浪没完，其C浪会指向950。当然如果1010守住，则进入可能3。

开小差

thx,ding

ypm968

mkt news ahead, very likely.......

1) Small Gap and private sectors will be more easy to g ...
6th-Sense 发表于 2010-8-17 16:28

    Well, we just have different views on the world economy. I am more bearish.
A bad weekly initial claims number on Thursday could derail this rally.

slcgh

acoust