07/29/2010 大盘回顾（Kiss Channel Goodbye?）

Cobra · 发表于 2010-7-29 06:56 PM

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	1 of 2 are SELL
Intermediate	3 of 3 are BUY	5 of 5 are NEUTRAL	SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode
Short-term	Model is SELL	5 of 5 are NEUTRAL	Re-shorted on 07/29, hold overnight as the mini target is not met, not because it’s safe to hold overnight.
GANN DAY	MOON/SOLAR	CYCLE	CONCLUSION
07/27	07/25 / 07/23	07/26, 07/31, 08/02	Next pivot date: 07/26 – 08/03

BULLISH	0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, so market bottomed?
BEARISH	0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Trend line broken, so market topped?

SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	STOP LOSS	INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop	07/15 L	N/A	Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks.
ST Model	07/20 L	Breakeven

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: THE LAST TRADING WEEK OF RECENT MONTH WAS GENERALLY BEARISH

See 07/23 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: KEY WEEK THIS WEEK

Key week this week, as multiple pivot dates are due until 08/03. The market may turn down on any of those pivot dates to at least test the 07/01 low. However if the market simply keeps rising during this time window, then most likely the same March 2010 mad cow is back. See 07/23 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: A LITTLE BIT BEARISH BIASED

我看到的bearish signal比较多，不过并没有什么decisive的，因此我目前只能说bearish biased，特别是1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)，看着像是breakdown then kiss channel goodbye，因此明天弄不好会继续跌。

SPY在3天内整了2个bearish reversal day (open high then higher high but eventually close in red). Short at today’s close, cover 3 days later since year 2000 (plus 2 additional conditions: RSI(2) 3 days ago > 75 and MA(20) up meaning the reversal days happened on an uptrend) ，看起来短期熊熊有点edge。

如果对照SPY daily图，看看图中标明的所有日期以后都发生了啥的话，可以发现，至少都是在短期顶部附近。下图是最近的5个case的情况。

Follow up一下昨天提到的top signal：0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals，trend line breakout今天算是confirm了。

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – New update. Click BLUE* to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565.
IWM	UP
CHINA	UP
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): Bear Flag?; EEM:$SPX too high.
EUROPEAN	UP	4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.45; Bear Flag?
CANADA	DOWN	4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30.
BOND	UP
EURO	UP
GOLD	DOWN
GDX	DOWN
OIL	UP	4.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Weekly): Bear Flag?
ENERGY	UP	4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14.
FINANCIALS	DOWN
REITS	UP
MATERIALS	UP

catour · 发表于 2010-7-29 06:57 PM

thanks

dreampen · 发表于 2010-7-29 06:57 PM

zpwang · 发表于 2010-7-29 06:59 PM

顶，沙发没抢到

leftright · 发表于 2010-7-29 06:59 PM

neo · 发表于 2010-7-29 07:00 PM

stockgirl · 发表于 2010-7-29 07:00 PM

First page! thank you!

ht008 · 发表于 2010-7-29 07:02 PM

thanks

萧秋水 · 发表于 2010-7-29 07:02 PM

辛苦了,多谢!

impresario100 · 发表于 2010-7-29 07:03 PM

Zephyr · 发表于 2010-7-29 07:04 PM

sunnysunny · 发表于 2010-7-29 07:04 PM

ut1984 · 发表于 2010-7-29 07:05 PM

oldfox · 发表于 2010-7-29 07:05 PM

Diver · 发表于 2010-7-29 07:05 PM

I dare not move before seeing the clue from GDP tomorrow morning.

回复 1# Cobra

slcgh · 发表于 2010-7-29 07:07 PM

nirvanawang · 发表于 2010-7-29 07:08 PM

Forevergreen · 发表于 2010-7-29 07:11 PM

fara · 发表于 2010-7-29 07:13 PM

1st page again!

t-k · 发表于 2010-7-29 07:13 PM

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[技术分析] 07/29/2010 大盘回顾（Kiss Channel Goodbye?）

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[技术分析] 07/29/2010 大盘回顾 （Kiss Channel Goodbye?）

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[技术分析] 07/29/2010 大盘回顾（Kiss Channel Goodbye?）