07/21/2010 大盘回顾 （Direction Unclear but Bearish Biased）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are SELL     Intermediate 2 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode Short-term Model is SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL The model did nothing today, so no position overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 07/24, 07/27 07/26 / 07/23 07/29, 07/31 Next pivot date: 07/27 – 07/31

BULLISH BEARISH 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: A little bit low.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 07/15 L N/A Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks. ST Model 07/20 L 1.9xATR(10)

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: WEEK AFTER JULY EXPIRATION, DOW DOWN 7 OF LAST 11

See 07/16 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE CORRECTION ISN’T OVER YET

See 07/02 Market Recap and 07/16 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: DIRECTION NOT CLEAR, A LITTLE BIT BEARISH BIASED THOUGH

 

今天的SPY daily chart不好看，是个Dark Cloud Cover，不过在没看到明天follow through之前，暂时direction not clear。

 

 

虽然direction not clear，不过从我目前搜集的证据看，应该说比较bearish biased。特别是liquidity (courtesy of stocktiming)，尽管昨天大涨了，但是其实没有多少liquidity inflow。我的感觉，要想解决liquidity的问题，只有Quantitative Easing II，虽然其实Quantitative Easing II只会让事情更糟，well，这个不是我报告所要讨论的范围。

 

 

下面的图是自去年三月以来，历次SPY bearish reversal bar的情况，供参考，看起来是不怎么牛牛友好，虽然并不意味着明天就跌，但是无一例外，今天的low，不是THE LOW。

 

 

6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals，这个图讲了很多次了，还是low，因此既使大盘继续反弹，我还是不认为可以go too far。Please refer to 07/20 Market Recap for why.

 

 

可能大家没注意，IBM昨天ER后跌了，而According to Bespoke, IBM’s one day return (positive or negative) following earnings has been the same direction as the S&P 500 over the next five weeks 77% of the time:

Since 2001, IBM has traded up on the day after its earnings report 20 times. In the five weeks following those twenty periods, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 2.2% with positive returns 80% of the time. There have been fifteen occurrences where IBM traded down on the day following its earnings report. In the five weeks following those periods, the S&P 500 has averaged a decline of 3.7% with declines 73% of the time.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	DOWN	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565.
IWM	DOWN	4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly): Ascending Broadening Wedge, target $54.79.
CHINA	*UP	*Testing MA(50), be careful as the trend is still down.
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): Bear Flag?
EUROPEAN	UP	4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.45; Bear Flag?
CANADA	DOWN	4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30.
BOND	UP
EURO	UP
GOLD	DOWN	4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99.
GDX	DOWN
OIL	DOWN	4.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Weekly): Bear Flag?
ENERGY	DOWN	4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14.
FINANCIALS	DOWN
REITS	DOWN	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Pay attention to XHB weakness!
MATERIALS	DOWN	4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $27.35.

nanosensor

Ding!

soulvirus

thx

brcm

上有阻力, 下有支撑 - 静候期变.........

nanosensor

Thanks

开小差

thx, ding

surya

Thanks!

usamonkey

Ave

Fan8an

thanks

t-k

leftright

donkeygirl

thanks

quickcow

这么多人在这等着。。。。

abaqus

hhli3

:(63):

X中国陆军

Bencat

等着!

songjiang

thanks lot

chickencoop

thanks a bunch