07/14/2010 大盘回顾 （Key Day Tomorrow）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 1 of 2 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode Short-term 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL *No position now. The trend is still up though. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION *07/14-07/17 07/25 / 07/23 07/16, 07/31 Next pivot date: 07/16

BULLISH 6.3.1a Major Accumulation Day Watch: Tradable bottom when 2 MAD within 5 days? BEARISH 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: A little bit low. 07/13 Market Recap: Nasdaq Intraday Cumulative Tick is way too high.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 06/30 S N/A *Cover short and long tomorrow. For general market direction guide only. Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks. ST Model     *Setup mentioned on 07/13 was not confirmed and therefore no long valid. *You may want to short if SPY tomorrow’s Open > tomorrow’s Close, but unless tomorrow down big, otherwise SPY ST Model will be in BUY mode.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: EARLY THIS WEEK IS BULLISH, OE FRIDAY IS BEARISH

See 07/09 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT HUGE REBOUND BEFORE 2ND LEG DOWN

Still expect a 2nd leg down but since the retailers sentiment is way too bearish so the rebound we have now could be huge. See 07/09 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: MARKET MAY TURN DOWN SOON UNLESS UP HUGE TOMORROW

 

Time, price and price pattern都在说market要turn lower了，除非明天能大涨 ，所以是牛是熊，明天是key day。

 

下面的图是牛牛的希望，明天大涨，那就很可能重复去年的疯牛市，那，forget about今天的其他分析吧。明天如果是小棒棒的话，那此后pullback的可能性就非常大了。

 

 

RSI已经有点点点点negative divergence了，所以基本pullback的前提已经满足，当然divergence还略显不够，结合上面的图，extreme high NYADV MA(5) almost guarantees a new recovery high，因此明天SPX high过1099 (Tuesday’s high)的可能性还是很大的。

 

 

以上是牛牛的所有好消息了，总结一下，就是new recovery high的可能性非常大，但是如果明天最终不能up big，那要小心此后的大回调。

 

 

下面看看，为什么我说market要turn lower了。

 

Price and time target基本已经达到，特别是time，离07/16越来越近了。

 

 

下面的Multiple Gann Day也有不少跟07/16重合，这从另一个角度说明07/16的重要性。

 

 

Price pattern，目前测试the primary bear trend line，搞了个Hollow Red bar (Close > Open but Close < Yesterday’s Close)，是个potential reversal bar。

 

 

VIX leads SPX。

 

 

0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield，可能是个典型的breakdown then back test before going down further。TNX leads SPX，所以这不是好消息。

 

 

Weekly图可以更清楚地看到TNX leads SPX，同时也可以看到这条breakdown then back test的线线的重要性。

 

 

最后提醒一下，从明天开始起seasonality就不怎么牛牛友好了。嗯，还有不要忘了昨天的WOW。

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	DOWN	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565.
IWM	DOWN
CHINA	DOWN
EMERGING	UP
EUROPEAN	UP	4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.45.
CANADA	DOWN	4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30.
BOND	UP
EURO	UP
GOLD	UP	4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99.
GDX	UP
OIL	DOWN
ENERGY	DOWN	4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14.
FINANCIALS	DOWN
REITS	DOWN	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Pay attention to XHB weakness!
MATERIALS	DOWN	4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): Double Top, target $23.27.

acoust

SF

happyface

bandeng

oreo

thanks

chujingluyou

Thanks a lot!


回复 1# Cobra

X中国陆军

darren168

1st page

源济

dreampen

Ding

开小差

thx, ding

hillcrest

谢谢！

quickcow

今天早

nanosensor

Thanks!

oldfox

t-k

can2000

thanks

belmonthill

Thanks...

silencelake2007

thks a lot

xiaochong

谢班长

ashes

回复 1# Cobra


    Hi, Cobra. How can explain the relationship between TNX and SPY between 06/09 and 01/10 in your weekly chart. SPY kept going higher, while TNX was in range motion.
Thanks a lot.