06/29/2010 大盘回顾 （SPX Lower Close Ahead?）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 2 of 2 are SELL 3 of 6 are OVERSOLD SPY ST Model is in BUY mode GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION 07/07-07/11 07/11 / 07/07 07/31, 08/20-08/23 Next pivot date: 07/07-07/11

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC < –9%, bottomed? *6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: MDD > 35, bottomed? BEARISH 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: trend line broken, topped? 6.3.2b Major Distribution Day Watch: 2 MDD within 5 days means an intermediate-term downtrend? 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): bearish engulfing were bearish for the next several weeks. *6.4.1a Extreme NYADV Readings Watch: SPX will close below 1041.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model   Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop(RSP) 06/17 L N/A *Close current long position and sell short tomorrow.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY, BULLISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

See 06/25 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PROBABLY NOT BOTTOMED TODAY

 

Bottomed? 答案是可能没有。理由有二：

 

6.4.1a Extreme NYADV Readings Watch，NYADV too low表示卖压太大，因此几乎可以guarantee, SPX will have a lower close ahead，就是说会close below 1041.

 

 

大家知道，对于05/25的low是否是THE LOW，一直有个puzzle，就是missing NYMO positive divergence (see  06/04 Market Recap)，从下面的图看，尽管今天SPX已经lower low了，但是NYA still higher low，因此依然没有positive divergence。(Why uses NYA? Because NYMO is NYSE McClellan Oscillator not SPX McClellan Oscillator, so officially, NYA should be used to compare with the NYMO to check the divergence. Agree?)

 

 

那么，下面market可能会怎么走呢？0.1.2 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals，可以提供一些参考。QQQQ连跌7天，下面是自2000年以来仅有的4次QQQQ连跌7天or more的情况。可以看到，明天，最迟后天也许会有反弹，但是跟6.4.1a Extreme NYADV Readings Watch的原理一样，这么大的下跌动力，多半不会第一次反弹就成功，因此跟这过去的4个例子一样，反弹之后，at least we’ll see one more leg down。

 

 

如果以上的at least 2 leg down的分析成立的话，小心4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly)的Head and Shoulders Top，多半会成立，这样price target就可能是861。当然，现在还没有confirm是Head and Shoulders Top，因此还没有必要自己吓唬自己，等破了再说吧。

 

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE REBOUND TOMORROW, NOT SURE AS SEASONALITY IS BEARISH FOR TOMORROW

 

今天的After Bell Quick Summary里提到了明天有67%的机会反弹，考虑到seasonality (See 06/25 Market Recap)明天比较bearish，而周四周五则非常bullish，因此也有可能要到后天才有反弹。从6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch看，如果tradable bottom is very close还成立的话，周四周五确实大有希望。

 

 

这个看一下，1.1.1 NYSE Composite Index Breadth Watch，上面的NYADV:NYDEC MA(10)很low的时候，或者下面的NYUPV很low的时候第二天green的几率很大。当然这都是针对2009年bull market的情况，我不sure，是否还适用于现在，尽管officially，我们还是bull market，按理应该适用的。

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

	TREND	*DTFMS	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP		0.1.3 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: *ChiOsc a little too low.
IWM	DOWN		Ascending Broadening Wedge, downward breakout 73% of the time.
CHINA	DOWN
EMERGING	UP	*SELL
EUROPEAN	UP
CANADA	*DOWN	SELL
BOND	UP	BUY	Breakout but ChiOsc is way too high now.
EURO	DOWN
GOLD	UP	BUY	4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99.
GDX	UP	BUY	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX:$SPX is too high.
OIL	UP	BUY
ENERGY	*DOWN	SELL
FINANCIALS	DOWN	BUY
REITS	UP		4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Pay attention to XHB weakness!
MATERIALS	UP	*SELL

happyface

沙发

nanosensor

Thanks

acoust

Bandeng,

csw2002

Thanx

AGA7d

老大辛苦了

navybean

Thanks a lot.

babyruth

usamonkey

redwendy

谢谢！明天应该续跌，希望周四周五反弹咯！

sunnysunny

emichael

Thanks

Poo

天寒咳嗽  = thanks

dreampen

gardener2000

Thank you, Cobra lao da!
Do you consider add some FA indicator? I know it is very hard, and not sure how to incorporate what Xing points out everyday. Just heard from Bloomberg, Aug will be very critical for Greece default.

ranchgirl

GDX         UP         BUY         4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX:$SPX is too high.

Ha, I am waiting for this.

I bought some GDX like mutual fund these 2 days, hope buy some more tomorrow, if down more.

Thanks!

abaqus

我是谁

thx laoda.  But   i  got confused now:  you said:
"从下面的图看，尽管今天SPX已经lower low了，但是NYA still higher low，因此依然没有positive divergence。"
but. SPY today lower low,  NYA got higher low,  that is exactly positive divergence, right?
oh  never mind,  i got it now  laoda

windy

thanks

like2swing

thanks