06/25/2010 大盘回顾 （Weekly Bearish Engulfing）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in BUY mode Short-term 2 of 2 are SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION 07/07-07/11 06/26 / 07/07 07/31, 08/20-08/23 Next pivot date: 07/07?

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC < –9%, so bottomed? 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: all 3 ratios are high, so bottomed? *0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume: Spike high, so bottomed? BEARISH 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: trend line broken, so topped? 6.3.2b Major Distribution Day Watch: 2 MDD within 5 days means an intermediate-term downtrend? *4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): bearish engulfing were bearish for the next several weeks. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model   *Long if SPY up next Monday. The stop loss will be 1.9*ATR(10). Reversal Bar     *Long if SPY up next Monday. The stop loss will be 0.9*ATR(10). NYMO Sell     Non-Stop(RSP) 06/17 L N/A See 06/17 Market Recap for more details. OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP   IWM DOWN *BUY Ascending Broadening Wedge, downward breakout 73% of the time. CHINA DOWN EMERGING UP   EUROPEAN UP *BUY CANADA UP   BOND UP   ChiOsc is way too high now. EURO DOWN BUY GOLD UP *BUY 4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. GDX UP *BUY 4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX:$SPX is too high. OIL UP *BUY ENERGY UP   FINANCIALS DOWN *BUY REITS UP *BUY *4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Pay attention to XHB weakness! MATERIALS UP

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY, BULLISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

 

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Last day of Q2 bearish for Dow, down 13 of last 18 but bullish for Nasdaq, up 12 of 17, although down 4 in a row.
2. First trading day in July, Dow up 17 of last 20.

6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch, the last 2 trading day of recent month are bearish, but the 3rd last trading day, i.e. next Monday, could be bullish.

 

 

下面是Independence Day前后的seasonality。提醒一下，market closed on 07/05。

 

 

以上总结起来，好像周四周五比较bullish。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: NEXT WEEK NEUTRUAL, NEXT NEXT AND NEXT NEXT NEXT WEEK ARE BEARISH

 

06/24 Market Recap里提了，officially the intermediate-term trend is up，因为我说过我不argue with my SPY ST Model which now is still in BUY mode。但是06/21 Market Recap里也解释了，lacking of secondary buy signals should keep you from on the long side，因此到今天为止，既使我说officially the trend is up，既使market天天跌，你应该没啥损失。

 

顺便说，每天的After Bell Quick Summary，我只是提供info，并不代表我个人的意见。比如这周，根据过去的pattern，每天的After Bell Quick Summary显得bullish biased，我只能如实地说，信不信由你，但我绝不能告诉你，也许可能大概这次会不一样。我说过，如果看到什么，总是要想也许可能大概这次会不一样，那就不需要任何indicator或者statistics了，一句话，我觉得会怎么怎么就够了，那你也没必要来看我的blog了。最后，请不要忘了06/18 Market Recap里，我说得清清楚楚，本周收红的几率很大，此外既使这周的After Bell Quick Summary的trick工作的不好，还是对了Monday和Friday，因此其实statistics还是有用的。

 

嗯，扯远了，officially the intermediate-term trend is up，不过06/24 Market Recap里提了三个可能top的信号：

1. 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, CPCE trend line broken may mean a top.
2. 6.3.2b Major Distribution Day Watch, 2 Major Distribution Day within 5 days means a short-term rebound but most likely confirming an intermediate-term down trend.
3. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly), weekly bearish engulfing.

 

下面是关于weekly bearish engulfing的简单统计，sell short at the Friday’s close, cover at close 1 week, 2 week, 3 week, 4 week, 5 week and 6 week later at close since 1988. 可以看到下周neutral，不过week 2, 3 and 4好像不怎么牛牛友好。

 

 

以上总结一下，all I can say are, intermediate-term doesn’t look bright，但是officially并没有确认是down。啥时候确认down？我在06/22 After Bell Quick Summary里讨论过，等确认，是晚了点，但是it’s the sad reality。目前看，牛牛还有点希望：

1. 1.4.1 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Daily)
2. 1.4.2 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Daily)
3. 3.1.0 Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE Daily)
4. 3.3.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily) 

Emerging markets, European markets, Euro, Australian Dollar and oil, 最近都很strong，这些往往leads the US market。

 

 

4.0.5 The World Market，这个图可以很清楚地看到EEM是如何leads the market的。Believe or not，EEM是个非常重要的指标，see HERE for reasoning behind it.

 

 

所以，革命的道路永远是充满坎坷和荆棘的，目前虽然看起来革命处于低潮时期，但是牛牛还有一线希望，周五SPY形成的Spinning Top是个potential reversal bar (50% chances)，如果周一能收绿的话，会触发SPY ST Model and Reversal Bar Model的buy setup，我在06/23 Market Recap里讨论过，如果触发的话，此后牛牛有67%的winning rate。

 

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE GREEN MONDAY BUT BE CAREFUL OF NASDAQ INTRADY CUMULATIVE TICK

 

周五的After Bell Quick Summary提了两个seasonality的理由，可能有green Monday，很牵强，不过这里还有个比较有说服力的理由，QQQQ连跌5天，buy at close, sell at the next day close since 2002，看起来比较牛牛友好。

 

 

6.3.2b Major Distribution Day Watch，2 Major Distribution Day within 5 days，虽然意味着intermediate-term down，但是短期还是有反弹的，这个我在06/24 Market Recap里讨论过。Here is the back test from Quantifiable Edges: Two 90% Down Days In One Week.

 

以上是说，短期，牛牛也许有希望。不过，周五的After Bell Quick Summary里也提了可能会WOW，而前8次WOW (06/02 Market Recap, 05/26 Market Recap, 05/18 Market Recap, 05/12 Market Recap, 05/03 Market Recap, 04/29 Market Recap, 04/20 Market Recap and 04/14 Market Recap)，最多第三天（就是说周二）都发生了大跌，所以be careful。Personally，我还是认为sentimentrader的Nasdaq Intraday Cumulative TICK extremely high只是反映了change in trading characters，而不是说大家都特爱Nasdaq，这个从图上就可以看出来了，周五的WOW在目前已经算正常值范围了，甚至还不能算是真正的WOW。当然，我不是说可以忽略这个图，我只是说可能WOW并没有那么神奇。

 

 

nanosensor

Thanks!

wangbin

板凳!

nanosensor

Looks like everyone is watching football!

usamonkey

rosyrosy

floor!

nokia

fead

thanks!

Fan8an

thanks

maldini

armorr

Thanks!

stockgirl

First page! Thank you!

X!nG

谢谢老蛇。

向老蛇致敬。

李隆基

Fig

Thanks Cobra! What a game between Germany and England

wyemlyy

老大，是不是只有SPX跌过1040，NYMO才会跌到形成PD？上周NYMO居然没怎么动，这是我最担心的地方

Cobra

老大，是不是只有SPX跌过1040，NYMO才会跌到形成PD？上周NYMO居然没怎么动，这是我最担心的地方
wyemlyy 发表于 2010-6-27 12:40

    是。

long10

回复 1# Cobra

Thank you.

bilko540

gardener2000

If we just by weekly chart, more to drop, but from daily chart, possible to go up from here. Which one to trust?
By the way, it was full moon Friday.