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I do not compare this current equity correction to 2008 because I believe we have vastly different circumstances. 2008 was the implosion of the financial system with the distress of many financial institutions caused by incredible leverage, bad lending practices and a historically massive decline in housing prices. Now we have more optimistic signals: GDP has turned mildly positive, large corporations are in very lean shape, the earnings yield on the S&P 500 is in the 7-8% neighborhood, residential real-estate is bottoming, inflation is tame with a primed pump via low short-term rates, the yield curve is very steep, and the jobs outlook seems to be getting better. |
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