EURUSD Weekly EW

ddd

Two Weekly charts, one long the other short term are attached.



Long term weekly traces part of an upright head and shoulder pattern which always identifies Wave 5 as the head and Wave B as the right shoulder.  Wave A chart low is the right side of the neck line, the left side of the neck is observed at Wave 4 low not shown on this weekly chart.  Typical completion of this most common of all price patterns calls for a low equal to the distance from Wave 5 to Wave A subtracted from the high of Wave B.  Minimally price is expected to test the neck line.



Price is currently grossly below the lower SDC line a point at which higher price is anticipated.



Short term chart counts EWs all identified with fractal lows or highs from B to possible low of Wave 5 at FE 161.8 and Fib retracement 85.4.   Price always finds support or resistance at Fibonacci levels.  At this point a RPD is traced by RSI.  RSI  valleys and peaks above 34 trace an uptrend.   RSI peaks and valleys below 64 trace a downtrend.  The low of Wave 5 has not yet been conclusively established.  Next lower support is at 261.8.



Once the low of Wave 5 is established there will be a three wave (A, B C) retracement against the prior down trend.



Comment;

The purpose of the exercise is to identify the possible low  of Wave 5 an important point at which trend will change from down to up.



Shorter time frames often  repeat similar EW structures.  



30 minute traces divergences which suggest possible low of Wave 5  at FE 161.8.   In any event this price and RSI tracing suggests reducing exposure to short positions.  Too soon for a long condition however, some who know how to swim will  be on the diving board ready for entry in Wave A.

ranchgirl

回复 1# ddd

What does EW mean?
Thanks!

ddd

回复 2# ranchgirl


    Elliott Wave Analysis

buctusa

SO EURO almost bottomed?

weigoodone01

southware

sooners

回复 1# ddd


   

baibai

How do you see SP500 based on EW analysis? Is wave 5 completed?

acoust

ranchgirl

回复  ranchgirl


    Elliott Wave Analysis
ddd 发表于 2010-5-5 17:09

Thanks!

ddd

SO EURO almost bottomed?
buctusa 发表于 2010-5-5 17:45

    Only on short-term (measured by weeks). Notice the author is pointing to an unfinished down wave C of a higher degree than his current 5-wave analysis. In other words, he expects the wave C is of a complex form of 5-legs down, and he is seeing the first leg of this C is/is about finishing. Keep in mind this is on weekly chart.

ddd

How do you see SP500 based on EW analysis? Is wave 5 completed?
baibai 发表于 2010-5-5 22:25

    There were signs / hopes that the inverse relationship between the $SPX and US$ was going to end and revert to a positive correlation as seen during all other major financial crisis' recoveries. However, the market actions in the last few days has proven it to be premature. Maybe the Globalization through the last decade or so has fundamentally changed our economic model, and no region can have a strong economical recovery at all on its own. In such a case weak EU economy results a weak Chinese, and a weak U.S. economy, thus a weak $SPX outlook.

baibai

回复 12# ddd
   
Thanks. Like to read your posts.