05/03/2010 大盘回顾 （Symmetrical Triangle or Diamond Top?）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are SELL 3 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode

ATTENTION *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 17 unfilled up gaps. (max was 18) 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Could be an Ascending Broadening Wedge in the forming. BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246. 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: NYHGH new high could mean SPX new high ahead. BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI too high, top? 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): BPSPX too high. 04/20 Market Recap: Record high Climax Buying. 04/20 Market Recap: Weekly Bearish Engulfing could mean a top. CONCLUSION 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, although the primary sell signal is not yelling yet, but sometimes NYSI and BPSPX sell signals did work, so be careful here.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 04/29 L 1.5xATR(10) Be careful, don’t get too bullish, the uptrend is weakening. Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop     VIX MA ENV       OTHER ETFs TREND TRADE COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP   IWM UP     CHINA DOWN   EMERGING ?   Price overlap, so could be a failed bearish 1-2-3 formation, the trend is unclear. EUROPEAN DOWN   Stick Sandwich, so more down? CANADA UP   Lots negative divergence and I don’t like the BPTSX bearish crossover. *Plus 2 reversal bars in a row today, should mean something, I guess. BOND ?   Breakout, the trend could be changed to up from down. EURO DOWN   *6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch: GLD black could mean UUP rebound. YEN DOWN     GOLD UP   4.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. Also there’s a small Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $121.96. OIL ? ENERGY UP   FINANCIALS ?   Price overlap, so could be a failed bearish 1-2-3 formation, the trend is unclear. REITS UP MATERIALS UP

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BULLISH

See 04/30 Market Recap for more details.

 

CYCLE ANALYSIS: COULD BE A CYCLE TOP AROUND 05/03 TO 05/10

See 04/30 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD OR THE MARKET COULD BE TOPPED

See 04/30 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: MIXED SIGNAL, A LITTLE BULLISH BIASED THOUGH

 

短期方向不定，要看明天。中期，见04/30 Market Recap，应该是在做顶。换句话说，就是目前我不sure，是否还有最后一push up。

 

0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals，牛眼看，可能是Symmetrical Triangle，就是说wave 4，这样应该还有wave 5的push up，按照wave structure推算出来的target，可能要到SPX 1250ish。

 

 

0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals，熊眼看，可能是Diamond Top plus Ascending Broadening Wedge。

 

 

究竟是Symmetrical Triangle还是Diamond Top，要看明天。我的猜测是Symmetrical Triangle的可能性大，理由是6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB)，VIX BB buy setup triggered today。再下面是简单的back test，buy tomorrow open, sell at the 4th day close, 有75%的机会，换句话说，就是短期继续涨的可能性大些

 

 

明天如果又涨的话，注意这个WOW，Nasdaq又是一天几乎没有minus TICK。前三次WOW是在04/29 Market Recap, 04/20 Market Recap and 04/14 Market Recap。当然这次WOW最小，所以我不sure，是否熊熊效果有前三次那么好。

 

 

xiaoxiaozhang

沙发！

rnhoo

ding

pangpang

谢谢

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


   

silencelake2007

先顶老蛇一下

happyface

wow,thx

darren168

Thanks

Shafufu

thanks a lot.

HTER

风信子

fead

ding!

LadyLucy

Bencat

  the direction of market is going to be hard to forecast for a while.

fara

little SF

southware

dxzhu

First page, Ding!

lehldk

哇，就这样哇下去了

oda

phoenix

Thanks!