*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
SEASONALITY: MOSTLY THE MONTH’S LAST TRADING WEEK WAS RED SINCE AUG 2009
See 04/23 Market Recap for more details.
CYCLE ANALYSIS: THE NEXT IMPORTANT DATE IS 05/06
The next potential turn date is 05/06 (+-) which could either be a top or a bottom depending on how the market marches to that date. See 04/16 Market Recap for more details.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD
See 04/26 Market Recap for more details.
SHORT-TERM: A FEW LONG SETUP NEED CONFIRMATION TOMORROW
今天单从daily chart上看,是典型的consolidation day,因此其实后续方向未定,需要看明天怎么走(see 8.0.1 Small Body Bar Trading Rule)。不过as discussed in 04/27 Market Recap,如果这次还是重复过去Major Distribution Day的pattern的话,很大可能the market was bottomed。
当然,market bottomed仅仅是speculation,trading是需要confirm的。今天最重要的trading setup是6.2.0a VIX Trading Signals (ENV),VIX又跌回MA ENV(10, 20),这是个potential long setup。
下面是VIX MA ENV trading setup的back test summary。
如果等待SPY tomorrow Open < tomorrow Close的confirm后才enter long的话,winning rate是81%。
如果不等待confirm,buy at tomorrow’s open,则winning rate是59%。
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