Oil prices revisit March lows

happylux

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oi ... p;asset=&ccode=
Chavon Sutton, staff reporter, On Friday March 26, 2010, 3:40 pm

Oil prices ticked lower Friday amid volatile trading, as investors searched for clear signs that the global economic recovery will stick.

What prices are doing: Crude prices for May delivery fell 53 cents to settle at $80.00 a barrel.

Oil prices have traded within a tight range over the past few weeks, struggling to hold gains amid uncertainty in Europe. After a volatile trading session Friday, prices finished the week down 2% from a high of $81.91. Prices are now 3.8% below a 2010 peak of roughly $83.18 a barrel.

What's moving the market: A mix of news gave investors little direction on Friday.

On the positive side, Europe inched closer to a solution for Greece's debt woes, helping to push the dollar down versus the euro. The dollar fell 1.01% against the euro to $1.340 on the day.

A weaker dollar makes crude oil, which is priced in the U.S. currency, cheaper for foreign investors. This tends to boost oil demand and prices.

But news from the U.S. Commerce Department early Friday that fourth quarter economic growth estimates were slightly lower than originally forecast put a damper on investors, who remain wary about the strength of the economic recovery and oil demand.

"We've got a lot of nervous traders out there," said Dan Flynn, an energy trader for PFG Best. "The oil markets can't find a direction at the given moment."

What analysts are saying: Instability in Europe will continue to haunt investors, who've been following the dollar's performance against the euro.

"The [oil] market needs to be fed good news," says Flynn, "and we're not getting the shot in the arm that would get bullish investors into the market."

Specifically, a lack of clarity surrounding Europe's bailout plan for Greece makes investors uneasy.

Flynn says that the Greek issue is a political football that could be tossed around for some time, keeping a lid on oil prices in the near team.

"We're really focused on the European crisis and the dollar," he said. "The thought is that a bailout for one country could result in a domino effect. This is a fear of many investors."

Looking ahead: Next week, investors will watch for weekly jobs and inventory reports, as well as the latest measurement from the Case-Shiller Index, which tracks real estate prices across the U.S.

天天向上

does this mean uso will go up next wk as long as Europe is certain?

X!nG

does this mean uso will go up next wk as long as Europe is certain?
天天向上 发表于 2010-3-26 16:20

石油见顶了，操作小心点。

happylux

石油见顶了，操作小心点。
X!nG 发表于 2010-3-26 05:22 PM

What if US$ go down next week?

X!nG

What if US$ go down next week?
happylux 发表于 2010-3-26 16:23

大家简单的以为最近的商品掉是因为美金长，却忽略了美元套息交易平仓以及基本面的恶化（准确地是投资者意识到现实远不及先前预期的好）。

今天就是一个很好的例子，美金跌商品跌，有意思的是当美元跌的最狠的时候（其中EURUSD&GBPUSD涨，USDJPY跌非常明显的时候），石油跌的也最狠...

我先前说了，最近这个时期不一样了，会让很多投资者一头雾水。

soulvirus

偶有同感哈。

星最近很厉害嘛

回复 5# X!nG

X!nG

偶有同感哈。

星最近很厉害嘛

回复  X!nG
soulvirus 发表于 2010-3-26 17:16

一口破钟一天总会对两回...

纯属运气。

happylux

大家简单的以为最近的商品掉是因为美金长，却忽略了美元套息交易平仓以及基本面的恶化（准确地是投资 ...
X!nG 发表于 2010-3-26 05:38 PM

I won't be that bearish when both USO and OIL are still above 50MA. So far buy dip still works. I will turn to bearish only when it go down below 200MA. I will DT if it's between 50MA and 200MA.

ranchgirl

Thanks for all the discussion above, I learned something here.

nirvanawang

回复 3# X!nG


      shorted ERX and long COP as a comobination trade, hope that will work out

happylux

Just sold USO bought on Friday. Shuang!

Buy-dip so far works perfect fine.

X!nG

Just sold USO bought on Friday. Shuang!

Buy-dip so far works perfect fine.
happylux 发表于 2010-3-29 09:11

佩服，高！

happylux

佩服，高！
X!nG 发表于 2010-3-29 10:13 AM

最近牛的运气比较好，偶只是沾牛的运道。偶也挺佩服你老兄的。