03/25/2010 大盘回顾 （Bearish Engulfing means huge rebound tomorrow?）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 2 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL

ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. BULLISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42. BEARISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 15 unfilled gaps. (max was 16) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 10) 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): NDXA50R is way too high. 03/25 Market Recap: *Smart/dumb confidence spread is too large. CONCLUSION Bearish signals are accumulated enough to justify a short sell. for aggressive traders only. 03/19, Bearish Engulfing, could be another short sell chances, good luck bears! *03/25, another Bearish Engulfing and a short setup triggered.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L *03/15 low *Adjust stop loss. Reversal Bar   NYMO Sell *03/25 S *03/25 high or 0.8xATR(10) *Setup was confirmed as today’s SPY open > today’s SPY close. The original stop loss design is 0.8 x ATR(10) but if you shorted before the close then perhaps set the stop loss a little above today’s high is better. VIX MA ENV     OTHER ETFs MID TERM SHORT TERM COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP ? IWM UP ? CHINA DOWN DOWN EMERGING ? DOWN CANADA UP ? 4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): 2 Doji under important resistance. Lots of negative divergence plus BPTSX is overbought which had led to a 2 weeks pullbacks in the past. FINANCIALS UP UP *Shooting Star? Doesn’t look good. REITS UP UP Consolidates on a small range, more likely to breakout on the upside. MATERIALS ? DOWN Hollow red bar, pullback ahead? OIL & ENERGY ? DOWN GOLD & GDX DOWN DOWN 3.2.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Daily): Breakdown below both price channel and consolidation range, doesn’t look good. 3.2.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily): *Black bar and on a MA support, rebound? DOLLAR UP UP Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. BOND DOWN DOWN Symmetrical Triangle breakdown. Expect more pullbacks ahead.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: WEEK AFTER TRIPLE WITCHING, DOW DOWN 15 OF LAST 22, ALSO MARCH IS KNOWN AS A TURNING MONTH

 

Interestingly, tomorrow is the most likely red day in March. Others see 03/19 Market Recap for more details.

 

 

CYCLE ANALYSIS: COULD RISE TO AROUND 03/25 BEFORE ANY MEANINGFUL PULLBACK

See 03/22 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: MORE TOP SIGNALS, BUT BEARISH ENGULFING TODAY MAY MEAN A HUGE REBOUND TOMORROW

 

今天是个Bearish Reversal Day (Open high close in red)，这是第四个potential reversal day了，因此短期内follow-through的机会很大。不过看看下面的图，虽然统计上Bearish Engulfing的成功率是79%，但是好像几乎第二天都是要大反弹的，跟这是第几个Bearish Engulfing无关，所以呢，熊熊要小心明天。

 

 

今天的After Bell Quick Summary提到了chart 1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)上ChiOsc too low的问题，也是说明天至少早盘可能反弹。1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 30 min) and 1.3.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM 30 min)有空可以看看，同样ChiOsc too low。

 

以上，总结一下，就是明天有反弹的可能，但我不sure，毕竟seasonality说明天red的可能性大。不过，on a little bit longer term than tomorrow，further pullback的可能性很大。最后，顺便说，不要指望月底的window dressing，因为根据 Stock Trader’s Almanac，the last trading day of March, Dow down 10 of last 15。

 

下面的图看一下，Sentimentrader的主要指标之一，Smart / Dumb money confidence spread继续拉大，不好。加到上面的table里，上面的table怎么用知道了吧？

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.

 

baker

thanks a lot

baker

wow, first one.

heaven

vancouverea

thanks~

soulvirus

xiexie

Seal

nanosensor

Ding!

源济

读完老蛇的报告，快去赌版投票、下注！


赌：$SPX涨跌，周五 3/26/2010


欢迎各位光临，多谢捧场，恭喜发财！

源济

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赌：$SPX涨跌，周五 3/26/2010


欢迎各位光临，多谢捧场，恭喜发财！

源济

读完老蛇的报告，快去赌版投票、下注！


赌：$SPX涨跌，周五 3/26/2010


欢迎各位光临，多谢捧场，恭喜发财！

源济

读完老蛇的报告，快去赌版投票、下注！


赌：$SPX涨跌，周五 3/26/2010


欢迎各位光临，多谢捧场，恭喜发财！

ranchgirl

If tomorrow up, I will sell some more, safety first. Increase my cash

slcgh

happyface

thanks

cartier

Jinan90

顶老大。 俺在减持多仓，先出来部分了。

柴禾

globe

t-k